Sunday Morning Hot Links

*The Masked Marvel has the recap of yesterday's extra-innings walk-off win over the A's. The Angels, Twins, and Mariners all lost, with Seattle's loss coming at the hands of West Dallas. That puts the AL West as such:
Rangers: -
Mariners: -2
Astros: -7
Angels: -8
A's: -8.5

*The Astros are 27-30. Since getting swept by the Rangers they are 10-2. The Astros now have a 41% chance to make the playoffs via FanGraphs, a 31% chance to make the playoffs via Baseball Prospectus, and FiveThirtyEight still isn't as sold as the other two with a 24% chance to make the playoffs.

*Still, Gregerson blew yet another save opportunity in the 9th - his 5th of the season in 18 attempts, most in baseball - and all since May 11. It was his second consecutive blown save, and he has allowed at least one run in three of his last four outings. Gregerson:
A lot of times I'm putting the ball almost right where I want it - down in the zone and good locations. Sometimes, you're just getting beat and I'm just trying not to get too frustrated with myself because I know that I'm making the pitch I want and right now, it's just not coming my way. 

*Baseball America's John Manuel told the Chronicle that it's a good year to not have high draft picks, and zeroed in on Virginia's Matt Thaiss as a player that would fit Luhnow's M.O. and would fill a catching need in the organization. Lots of good quotes in this one.

*The Astros put Tyler White's car in center field during batting practice as a prank. Tyler White was not happy, especially when he couldn't find the keys and Carlos Gomez bunted into it hit it with a towering fly ball. Keuchel:
As long as you don't take it out of context, it's all fun and games and it makes you a little bit stronger. So (White) is one of the guys we like and we'll continue to get on him a little bit, and it will make him tougher.

*Sonny Gray will come off the DL and pitch today against the Astros.

*Chad Qualls is the active leader for most wins in relief.

*Noted terrible person and Marlins team president David Samson explained how they broke the news of Muhammad Ali's passing.

*Jerry Izenberg: I called Ali my friend.

*Jose de Jesus Ortiz writes that Baylor should have been more like Uncle Drayton.

*Jurgen Klinsmann's optimism from the Colombia game might screw the US over against Costa Rica.

*The Little League team with Kevin Love and Klay Thompson.

Tuesday Winter Meetings Update

Let's recap what has happened so far on the Astros wing of the Opryland Hotel...

*Those battered bastions of baseball morality, the Miami Marlins, are - or are not - prepared to deal Jose Fernandez. And the Astros are a #MysteryTeam linked to this possible - or impossible - deal, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark. Nah, says Evan Drellich's source.

*Jeffrey Loria said of Fernandez:
There is nothing I am thinking about doing at the moment with him.

I'll echo Drellich's sentiments here: the Astros are easy to float in a rumor because they have a lot of prospects to offer for a big package, and that can be used to increase other teams' offers.

*Aroldis Chapman is "untradeable" according to Jon Heyman, while teams let MLB investigate last night's bombshell news of the alleged domestic assault.

*The Rockies signed Chad Qualls to a 2yr/$6m deal.

*The Rangers are "surveying" rival teams' interest in Prince Fielder.

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*As expected, the Astros declined to pay Chad Qualls $3.5m next year, instead opting to pay his $250,000 buyout for 2016. We'll get into his 2015 season later on in the off-season (if only as a matter of exercise), but Qualls followed the 2015 bullpen mode: lights out...until he wasn't. Strikeouts were up, walks were down, balls were out of the park.

*Doug Brocail - currently the pitching coach at Corpus - has interviewed to be the Rangers' pitching coach, proving once again the Rangers don't have an original idea in their little rat-skulls.

*The Berkshire Eagle talked to Paul Ricciarini about leaving the Astros for the Marlins.

*Watch this softcore video of A.J. Reed taking batting practice.

*Next time you think minor-league players are living the dream:

Pre-tax earnings: Low-A: $1300/mo. High-A: $1500/mo. AA: $1700/mo. AAA: $2150/mo. Players are only paid in-season. April-Early Sept.

— Tepid Participation (@TepidP) November 4, 2015

I would really love to see the Astros innovate here and offer minor-league players more money. But since it's not a way to entice free agents, and the player who just got drafted doesn't exactly have a lot of leverage, it probably won't happen.

Friday Morning Hot Links

Checking in with you from beautiful Nashville, Tennessee while I'm at the most inconveniently-timed wedding in the history of weddings. This post is coming to you from the bathroom while I pretend I have stomach issues. 

*Be sure you check out the Masked Marvel's excellent recap of last night's Game 1 win. The friends we're staying with don't have cable, and Fox Sports Go was useless, so I needed the recap this morning. Mistakes were made. 

*Jeff Passan: The Royals are in deep trouble

*Randy Harvey has five reasons the Astros won Game 1.

*Jerome Solomon: Astros are royalty for a night

*New York Times: 

Twenty-nine years after Mike Scott, another Mets castoff who landed in Houston, dominated his former team twice in a memorable National League Championship Series, McHugh has developed into a surprisingly big winner.

*Jerry Crasnick writes that these Astros are warming up on the road at the right time. Hinch:

This is a first for a lot of our team. We've never denied that. We haven't pretended like we've been there before. We haven't tried to govern any of the excitement or exuberance that goes on when you're on the stage for the first time. We've embraced it. I think our players enjoy the moment. They're enjoying bringing their best to the ballpark every day.

*Jake Marisnick rewards A.J. Hinch's hunch.

*Qualls was left off the ALDS roster, but isn't going to let it affect the clubhouse:

It's something they had to do for this series. If we advance on for that Toronto or Texas series hopefully I'll be on that roster there. I got to live with it. I can't mope around or be a bad influence in the clubhouse. I'm going to do what I do best and be positive. 

*Scott Kazmir hopes to reward the Astros' confidence in his Game 2 start today. 

For them to have the confidence in me to pitch Game 2, a very important game, pivotal game, I think it shows a lot about what they think of me. I'm just going to go out there and try to do my best.

*McTaggart has the three keys to taking a 2-0 lead. 

No, seriously, what is happening with the bullpen?

On August 27 the Astros were coming off a series in which they took two of three from the Yankees in New York, including a 15-1 win where Carlos Gomez finally remembered how to hit the ball. FanGraphs' simulations gave the Astros a 97% chance of making the postseason. As of this morning, that number is down to 68.5% (have you ever felt so terrible about being projected to make the postseason two out of three times?)

But still, yesterday was another day, another loss thanks to an inability to hold a lead turned over to the bullpen. What is happening? Why, all of a sudden, is the bullpen - a staple of the Astros' success from April to August, suddenly faltering?

Let's take a look at some of the key members of the bullpen from Opening Day to August 27:

Bullpen: .202/.266/.326

Tony Sipp: 46.1IP, 34H/11ER, 50K:13BB, 2.14 ERA/1.01 WHIP, .595 OPS against
Josh Fields: 41IP, 24H/10ER, 54K:15BB, 2.20 ERA/0.95 WHIP, .516 OPS against
Will Harris: 56IP, 31H/9ER, 55K:17BB, 1.45 ERA/0.86 WHIP, .486 OPS against
Chad Qualls: 40.2IP, 32H/17ER, 37K:8BB, 3.76 ERA/0.98 WHIP, .608 OPS against
Pat Neshek: 46.1IP, 32H/16ER, 46K:8BB, 3.11 ERA/0.87 WHIP, .602 OPS against
Luke Gregerson: 50IP, 40H/16ER, 45K:10BB, 2.88 ERA/1.00 WHIP, .591 OPS against

There is literally nothing to be mad about right there. Bullpen is solid top to bottom, and is certainly one of the main reasons the Astros were able to build a significant lead heading into late August.

And then this...this...mess happened.

Now from August 28 through yesterday:

Bullpen: .293/.355/.502

Sipp:
Fields: 7IP, 13H/10ER, 9K:3BB, 12.86 ERA/2.29 WHIP, 1.002 OPS against
Harris: 10.2IP, 10H/5ER, 9K:4BB, 4.22 ERA/1.31 WHIP, .761 OPS against
Velasquez: 10IP, 10H/9ER, 10K:6BB, 8.10 ERA/1.60 WHIP, .927 OPS against
Qualls: 8IP, 11H/5ER, 8K:1BB, 5.62 ERA/1.50 WHIP, .853 OPS against
Neshek: 7IP, 13H/5ER, 4K:3BB, 6.43 ERA/2.29 WHIP, 1.128 OPS against
Gregerson: 6.2IP, 3H/2ER, 7K:0BB, 2.70 ERA/0.45 WHIP, .384 OPS against

Gregerson has been the only reliever worth anything over the past month, but it doesn't matter because somebody else - or a combination of pitchers - has combined to blow the game by then.

1st inning OPS-against: .860
2nd inning OPS-against: .758
3rd inning OPS-against: .595
4th inning OPS-against: .690
5th inning OPS-against: .800
6th inning OPS-against: .686
7th inning OPS-against: .828
8th inning OPS-against: .868
9th inning OPS-against: .762

Maybe for some the issue is overuse. Will Harris faced 120 batters in 2014, and has faced 260 batters in 2015, throwing 1060 pitches so far this season compared to 479 in 2014 (though he did pitch more in 2013 than 2014).

For others, I don't think that excuse works. Chad Qualls will end up throwing more innings this year, but not by an unreasonable amount. He's thrown 16 more pitches this season already than last season, but last year's 697 pitches were the fewest he had thrown since his rookie season with the Astros in 2004.

Pat Neshek - who pitched into the postseason with the Cardinals - has thrown fewer innings. You want to talk about leverage? In 2014 Neshek had 107 plate appearances in what Baseball-Reference considered High Leverage situations (and had a .581 OPS-against in those PAs). He has faced 67 batters in High Leverage situations in 2015. He has thrown 164 fewer pitches from 2014 to 2015.

Of course, it's an older bullpen, as well. Qualls is 36, Neshek is 34, Sipp is 31, Gregerson is 31, Harris is 30. Qualls is a veteran. Neshek and Gregerson were in the playoffs last year. The guys supposed to be carrying the young guys through this stretch are the ones nutting the season away.

I could cherry-pick stats all day to show that the Astros bullpen has been pretty terrible at the worst possible time. Had they started out the season like this instead of waiting until September, I don't think we would be as livid as we are now.

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Well Corey Kluber went all Kluber Lang on the Astros last night and made the Astros look really bad, and that's the thing about the Astros: they either look really good or they look really bad. Last night was a really bad night. And since the Angels have forgotten that they're supposed to be a train wreck of a team and a front office, the Astros' lead is down to 2.5 games. Still, FanGraphs gives the Astros a 52.8% chance of winning the division and a 75.9% chance of making the postseason.

*One way to look at the Astros' recent skid: last night's loss aside, the Astros have played a tougher schedule more recently than the Angels, playing at Fenway, against Kansas City, New York, and the Angels. The Angels have played at Arlington, and against New York, Seattle, and the Astros. The Astros lost the finale of that three-game series in Anaheim in 13 innings. They win that, and the lead is 3.5 games.

*Shoutout to the 10,000+ fans who made it to Progressive Field last night to watch the reigning AL Cy Young award winner face the team with the best record in the American League.

*Hinch, on Corey Kluber:
We had a hard time getting anything started against Kluber early. A couple opportunities late, but it was a well-pitched game on both sides. They got a couple runs, solo homer, couple back-to-back, two-out hits...I thought we had good at-bats most of the night against a really good pitcher in our league, and nothing to show for it.

*In an effort to keep Velasquez's innings down in preparation for a potential post-season push (alliteration FTW!), the Astros sent Vince Velasquez to Corpus until after the All-Star Break, where he will simply not pitch. Velasquez:
I guess it's that time I need rest. It's not pleasant news, but they're looking out for me and we'll go from there.

*Scott Boras likes how the Astros are handling Velasquez and McCullers' workload, but he would like Velasquez to stay in the Majors:
In between starts, we think it's in the player's best interest to remain in the major leagues to continue to study opposing hitters and learn from veteran pitchers.

And this has nothing to do with Boras wanting to keep Velasquez on the major-league service clock for an extra year of arbitration *eyes roll out of head.*

*Hinch is keeping an eye on the rotation for the second-half of the season.

*The Astros signed 11th Round pick Patrick Sandoval, dipping into their overage money by $800,000. ESPN/FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen tweeted that Sandoval has 4th-6th Round talent, but wanted 2nd Round money, and that the Astros just had enough money to go get him.

*Chad Qualls is eligible to come off the DL today, and may rejoin the Astros on Thursday. Luis Valbuena may be held out of the lineup until after the Break to let his toe fully recover.

*Fresno's Tyler White isn't trying to hit home runs. But that's what he's doing.

Monday Morning Hot Links

Well the Angels beat the piss out of the Rangers this weekend, so the Astros now have a 3.0-game lead on the Angels. Let's get to the Hot Links.

*Sunday's loss to the Red Sox is on the bullpen (more on that later today). Tony Sipp:
The couple of hits that I do give up, seem like they've been home runs. It's frustrating. It was one of those things. Hopefully it doesn't last a long time. Just the way things are going right now. But I feel like I was throwing the ball well. Got ahead of both Big Papi and Hanley. Just couldn't put 'em away.

*Watch Jake Marisnick make a spectacular play against the wall at Fenway

*Jose Altuve will be the AL's starting second baseman for next week's All-Star Game. He'll be the first Astro to start the All-Star Game since Lance Berkman in 2008, and if Dallas Keuchel gets the start next Tuesday, he and Altuve will be the first Astros teammates to start an All-Star Game since Kent and Berkman did it in 2004.

*Scott Feldman's rehab start for Corpus went as follows: 3IP, 4H/3R (2ER), 3K:3BB.

*Chad Qualls will go to Cleveland with the Astros early this week and head to Corpus for a rehab appearance later in the week.

Astros sign Riley Ferrell; Singleton up for Qualls

Two quick news items prior to today's game.

The Astros signed Riley Ferrell for an undisclosed amount.  My sources in the front office have informed me that the signing bonus is less than 10 million.  Ferrell is a relief pitcher at TCU, and he was drafted in the third round - 79th overall - by the Astros.

And with every signing of a player in the early rounds, the Daz Cameron situation becomes more clear.

Also, a handsome Astros County reader suggested in the comments a few days ago that a Chad Qualls for Jon Singleton 25-man swap would be a logical move.  Well, it isn't a swap, but Singleton will get a look.  He was just added to the 25-man, sliding into the space created by Chad Qualls, who hit the DL with a pinched nerve in his neck.  It is possible that this injury has been bothering him for some time.

Singleton should be available tonight, and Quall's DL stint is retroactive to Thursday - the 13 inning game in which Qualls was the last man on the mound in the walk-off loss.

The Astros obviously think that they have considerable bullpen depth in the minor-leagues, too, because they traded AAA reliever Richard Rodriguez to the Orioles for cash considerations.

Qualls apparently staying put

And Jon Heyman is reporting that the Astros are telling teams Chad Qualls is off the market.

http://cbsprt.co/1txZutg

Friday Morning Hot Links

Here's what's going on as we head into the weekend...

*Dallas Keuchel tossed a baseball to a heckler with a special message. Click here for the original tweet.

*The Astros look as though they're holding on to Chad Qualls. Also in that link we get updates on Fowler (not close to returning), Albers (slow recovery) and Crain (surprise! slow recovery).

*Carlos Correa won't be ready to return from a broken leg for the Arizona Fall League, but the team hopes that he'll be ready for Spring Training. The Astros are also considering sending Rio Ruiz to the AFL, and also to Corpus.

*According to a Chronicle source, the MLBPA has filed a grievance against the Astros regarding their handling of the 2014 draft. No one is commenting on either side.

*SI's Ben Reiter has an in-depth piece on how the Astros lost Brady Aiken:
"A lot of people say they want to be a Hall of Famer," said another scout, "but I believe for this kid it's a realistic goal, to be one of the best pitchers of all time." The consensus was that Aiken could be pitching in the majors in just two and a half years - that is, as early as Opening Day of 2017.

*Mark Appel pitched last night, and lo, it was good. He threw 74 pitches in 6IP, 5H/2ER, 7K:0BB with a fastball that sat in the mid- to upper-90s. "I wasn't thinking about it, I wasn't really thinking about it at all. It was fun, it was, you know - I don't know. I'm not one to shy away from the frustrations of this season, but it's been a while since I had a game that was this fun."

*Aston Villa fan who visited 92 soccer grounds will be in Houston on Sunday to add to his MLB ballpark tour.

*Lance Berkman is returning to Rice as a student assistant.

*Happy Birthday, Billy Wagner, who somehow is only 43.

In Praise of the Astros Bullpen

We have spent a lot of space on this site lamenting the state of the Astros bullpen in recent years. We even adopted the Goatpen moniker to describe their collective performance. Well, it might be time to retire that name.

In April, it was more of the same. Despite Luhnow making the bullpen a priority in the offseason, the Astros ended April with a league worst 5.85 bullpen era, a -.9 WAR and 6 Blown Saves. Jerome Williams led the way with 16 IP and 6.75 ERA, with Bass and Clemens taking the second and third most IP, and put up a 4.61 and and 4.73 collectively. Fields imploded at the end of the month and ended up with a 9.58 ERA, and the designated lefties in the pen, Chapman and Valdes, only pitched 7 innings, but still managed to walk 10 batters.

But May has been a new day. Jerome Williams still leads the way in IP, but has performed better with a 3.86 ERA. And with the rest of the bullpen pitching like they have, he hasn't been asked to preserve many leads in high leverage situations. Tony Sipp has been a revelation, pitching 9.2 innings, and allowing only two singles and an intentional walk, with 13 K's and 0 runs. Qualls has cemented himself in the closer spot, and has also not allowed a run in May. And between Darin Downs (2.16 ERA) and Sipp, they have two lefties who can actually be trusted to pitch to the occasional right handed batter, and who won't walk the lefties they are asked to face. Fields has been down to the farm, and since his return has been phenomenal, with 13 K's, 2 walks and 2 hits in 8.2 innings. His ERA is still struggling from the implosion, which carried over into May, but his FIP is a microscopic  .69 for the month. As a group, for the month, the ERA is 3.33, with a 3.03 FIP. Over the last 14 days, its an incredible 1.53, best in the majors.

All of this has been done without two of the three major offseason acquisitions, as neither Albers or Crain have pitched an inning this month. If this pitching continues, there will be some tough choices to make about who gets the boot when they come back, something I never dreamed of saying in April of this year.

In April, a horrid BABIP and an even worse bullpen were masking the real improvements made to this team. In May, both have been fixed, and it lead to the Astros best month since 2010.  

Friday Morning Hot Links

Hear's youre kneed two no lynx (sorry, that won't happen again):

*Chad Qualls is helping Josh Fields with his mechanics while Luhnow notes that the bullpen would be better if the starters weren't throwing 100 pitches in five innings, and the starters would be better if the offense wasn't hitting .210.

*Bo Porter and Nolan Ryan went to see Tyler Kolek last night (but Silsbee's Brayden Griffin threw a complete game, allowed two hits and struck out ten).

*Jon Daniels, on the Round Rock-back-to-Astros affiliation:
You'd have to ask, 'What's in it for the Rangers?' I'm sure the Astros would like to get back in there, but why would we leave? The Austin area is a fast-growing market, and we've worked hard to establish a strong foothold there...We've made a lot of gains down there, and you can definitely attribute some of those (gains) to the affiliation with the Express. Of course, it helps that the Rangers have been a consistent winner.

Ohhhh. F that. RedHawks president Michael Byrnes:
I believe (the Rangers) intention is to stay there through 2018.

How Chad Qualls got his groove back

Evan Drellich has an excellent article detailing how Chad Qualls fixed his mechanics after a knee injury (that, coincidentally, took place in Houston) and revamped his throwing motion. Luhnow thinks they'll be able to keep those mechanics in place:

We looked at a lot of video and we looked at all the information we have, and we believe he made a few mechanical changes that allowed him to get back to really pitching from his strengths. We should be able to maintain those, so we're comfortable that the success that he had in 2013 is going to be continued.

Click the link.

Astros sign Chad Qualls

Yep. That Chad Qualls.

The Astros signed Chad Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - to a two-year deal today worth $6m plus incentives. Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - was the Astros' 2nd Round pick (67th overall) in the 2000 draft and has the highest WAR of any player drafted in the 2nd Round. Chad Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - played with Houston from 2004-2007, and in 284IP allowed 267H/107ER, 218K:84BB with six saves. In December 2007 Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - was traded with Chris Burke to Arizona for Jose Valverde, and has been a part of the Diamondbacks, Padres, Phillies, Yankees, and Marlins organizations.

For Miami in 2013, Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - threw 62IP (66 games), allowing 57H/18ER, 49K:19BB with a career-best 2.61 ERA/1.22 WHIP with a 1.8 WAR (via Baseball-Reference; FanGraphs gave him a 0.5 WAR). But to put that in perspective, only Jose Veras had a higher WAR (FanGraphs) as a reliever than Qualls in 2013, and no reliever had a higher B-R version of WAR than Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - in 2013.

Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - stranded 82.9% of runners and induced a career-high 63.3% groundball rate. His 2.61 ERA slightly outperformed his FIP (3.32) and xFIP (3.25), but both of those would have been perfectly acceptable for the Astros in 2013.

He will be 36 next August, so the Astros are paying for his 36- and 37-year old seasons. Does he provide an upgrade for the bullpen? If you have to ask yourself that question, then clearly you have erased 2013 from your mind and I would like to know your method.