Wednesday Morning Hot Links

AL West Recap

Well the Astros beat the Angels, of which you can read about in the Masked Marvel's Game Recap here. The Yankees beat the Rays by a score of...wait that can't be right...JEEBUS...yes, 21-5. The Yankees scored 21 unanswered runs after the Rangers put up a 5-spot in the 1st. The Diamondbacks beat the Mariners, and the A's beat the Dodgers. So once again the Angels and Astros are tied for the lead in the AL West. FanGraphs gives the Astros a 43.7% chance of winning the division, and an 84% chance of making the postseason. 

Game Links

*C.J. Wilson: Any time the team scores five runs for me, I feel really good about my chances, but I just sort of dropped that one right in the toilet...I didn't have anything tonight. I could have lost to the (Triple-A affiliate) Salt Lake Bees, the way I was throwing the ball.

*Collin McHugh: That was probably the ugliest pitchers' win you'll see and one of the prettiest team wins you're going to be able to witness. Everything besides what I did today we did extraordinarily well. It was fun to watch and I was fortunate enough to be on the right side of it.

*Jeff Luhnow: I don't know how much more (the Angels series is worth) more than a normal game, but they're worth a lot. This is the team that we need to beat if we want to win this division. Every game here, our team's going to be very focused on winning these games.

*An MRI showed no structural damage in Mike Trout's wrist, and he could be back in the Angels' lineup tonight. This guy is straight panicked. 

*Hank Conger has worked on his hitting mechanics: Just from the beginning of the season to literally now, the transition is just working with Zinter and Hudgens on plate discipline. Whether it is taking borderline pitches or not, it's really just seeing strikes is what has helped me out this year.

Trade Deadline Links

*Jim Crane: "Hopefully we might add another guy or two before the deadline on Friday."

*The Astros plan with the Phillies remains to "negotiate and worry about approval later."

*(Previous link) The Padres and Phillies both had scouts at the Astros and Rangers' Double-A games over the weekend. 

*Ken Rosenthal has additional confirmation that the Astros are making a "strong push" for Cole Hamels, but how open Hamels is to waiving that no-trade clause is unknown.

*Sirius/XM's Mike Ferrin says that if Hamels "is serious about wanting to win over the life of his contract, then waiving a no-trade to Houston is a no brainer."

*The Rangers and Dodgers are "in a better position" to land Hamels.

*The Rangers are talking to the Padres about Andrew Cashner and/or Tyson Ross "as much as they are" the Phillies about Cole Hamels.

Other Links

*Billy Beane, who has traded away Scott Kazmir and Tyler Clippard in the last week, credited the Astros' rebuilding plan for his actions: (The Astros created) a dynamic farm system, and they're now starting to reap the rewards. If we're ever going to compete, we're going to have to take a somewhat similar approach and at least make sure we've got young players who are coming through the system who'll be here for a few years.

*Kaz Matsui joined Japan's 2000-hit club. 

Non-Astros Link of the Day: As many of you know, Die Hard 3 is my favorite movie of all time. ("The One I Love" with Mark Duplass and Elizabeth Moss is a very close 2nd): Here's Uproxx on How Die Hard With a Vengeance caused the FBI to rethink Federal Reserve security.

Know Your Enemy: C.J. Wilson

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2-4, 2GB) @ Houston Astros of Houston (3-3, 1GB).

The Angels won their first two games of the season on Friday and Saturday at Houston, and got rocked yesterday thanks to five Astros homers. The last time the Angels gave up 5HR to an AL team was on July 21, 2012 when the Rangers did it. The all-time series between the Angels and Astros is 14-14, and the Astros have been outscored all-time by the Angels 122-120.

Bad Guy: C.J. Wilson

*Wilson got rocked by the Mariners on April 1, allowing 8H/6ER, but with 8K:2BB.
*The Angels were 2-2 when Wilson faced the Astros in 2013, striking out 34 batters and walking nine. He posted a 2.03 ERA/1.13 WHIP in those four games.
*At Minute Maid Park in 2013, Wilson held the Astros to a .200/.273/.360 line, a 1.35 ERA/1.13 WHIP.
*He threw 55% fastballs (90.8mph) in his season opener, with 16% curves (76.6mph), 15% sliders (81.4mph), and 8% changeups (84.3mph). All are about 1mph off his 2013 averages.
*Current Astros are a combined .209/.243/.403 against Wilson for their careers. Chris Carter is 4x15 with a double, homer, and two walks for an .886 OPS in 17 PAs. Altuve is 3x13 with a homer, for an .824 OPS.

Good Guy: Jarred Cosart

*Cosart allowed 4H/0ER, 3K:0BB in his G2 start against the Yankees - good news for everybody.
*He has never faced the Angels, and has only ever faced Raul Ibanez from the current roster...who went 0x2.
*In his first start, Cosart generated 11 ground balls, compared to two fly balls and three line drives.
*Cosart's fastball was sitting at an average of 95.4mph last week, almost a full mph over his 2013 average.

Game Notes: G33 vs. Los Angeles

The new-look Astros will continue their current 0-4 homestand against the Angels at Minute Maid Park tonight at 7:10pm (Central).

The Angels will send out Handsome C.J. Wilson. I'm actually quite interested in seeing how the Astros do against Wilson after seeing him once already this season. In yesterday's Kerry Wood recap game Biggio placed a big emphasis on the fact that they'd never seen Kerry Wood before that 20K game. Presumably, adjustments can and will be made. If Wilson goes out and throws a complete game shutout, then I don't even know what.

Anyhow, since we last saw the Angels in Anaheim from April 12-14, they are 7-12. They swept Detroit (!) from April 19-21, and haven't won a series since, dropping two of three to the Rangers, Mariners, A's, and three of four to the Orioles.

The Angels are 4-11 on the road, the Astros are 4-12 at home. SOMTING GOTTA GIB.

After losing five straight games started by Wilson from July 28-August 18, 2012, the Angels are 11-3 in Wilson's last 14 starts. They've won four straight Wilson starts.

Wilson threw 6IP, 5H/1ER, 3K:4BB against Houston on April 14. Wilson's last three starts:

04/21 vs. DET: 6IP, 5H/3ER, 4K:4BB, 109 pitches (65 for strikes)
04/26 @  SEA: 5.1IP, 7H/3ER, 9K:2BB, 110 pitches (73 for strikes)
05/01 @  OAK: 6.1IP, 6H/2ER, 5K:5BB, 123 pitches (77 for strikes)

So he's getting outs and limiting damage, but he has thrown at least 109 pitches in each of his last five starts.

*RHBs vs. Wilson: .243/.354/.351, 22K:17BB (131 PAs)
*LHBs vs. Wilson: .269/.375/.423, 10K:5BB (32 PAs)

*Wilson on the road: 4.08 ERA/1.64 WHIP, .340 BABIP
*Wilson w/RISP: .294/.457/.441. Ten of his 18 walks have come with runners in scoring position. 
*Wilson vs batters in 1st PA: .277/.382/.319
*Wilson vs batters in 2nd PA: .250/.389/.477
*Wilson vs batters in 3rd PA: .227/.300/.318

*In the first game against the Astros this season, Wilson allowed three hits and two walks in the first two innings, and of course the Astros only scored one run. In innings 3-6 he allowed two hits and two walks.

*Jordan Lyles makes his second start of the season tonight. In his first start on May 2, Lyles held the Tigers to 6H/2ER, 6K:1BB in 5IP and was in line for the win when Rick Ankiel booted a ball in the 8th inning that allowed Prince Fielder to score, and the Tigers went on to win in 14 innings. This was the beginning of The Troubles.

*Looking at splits after one game is dumb in and of itself. But righties were 5x13 against Lyles (.556 BABIP). Lefties were 1x8 with a walk (.167 BABIP).
*Lyles is 5-9 lifetime at Minute Maid Park with a .724 OPS-against. On the road he's 2-11 with an .854 OPS.

Know Your Enemy: C.J. Wilson

And this afternoon (2:35pm Central) the Astros close out the series in Anaheim looking for their second straight road series win. Taking the mound for the Angels...

Christopher John Wilson, a 32-year old 6'1" 210lb LHP from Newport Beach, California.

*Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2001 draft by the Texas Rangers.
*He is Head & Shoulders' new "Mane Man."
*I totally forgot this, or just didn't care at the time, but Wilson was the Rangers' closer, getting 24 saves (despite a 6.02 ERA/1.64 WHIP) in 2008 and converted to the rotation for the 2010 season. In two seasons in the rotation in Texas, he was 31-15 with a 3.14 ERA/1.22 WHIP.
*He signed a 5yr/$77.5m deal with the Angels a few hours after the Angels signed Albert Pujols, and went 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA/1.34 WHIP in his third straight season of 200+ IP.
*Wilson owns a racing team, and wants to race cars after his career is over. He won the 2010 25 Hours of Thunderhill (easily the best Michael Bay movie).
*He also doesn't have a problem criticizing the Rangers, pretty much every chance he gets. And he got in trouble last Spring Training when he tweeted out former catcher Mike Napoli's phone number.

*This is Wilson's third start of the season. He hasn't gotten a decision, but the Angels are 0-2 in games that he has started, allowing 11H/7ER with 11K:7BB.
*Most of the damage against Wilson have come in single innings. In his first start it was the 4th, where he allowed 3H/4ER and three walks. In his second start, against the A's, it was a 3H/3ER, 3BB 1st inning that tagged him.

*In four starts against the Astros in his career, Wilson is 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA. In 27.2IP, the Astros have 29H/10ER, 14K:9BB.
*Against current Astros, Chris Carter is 3x4 with a double and a walk. Carlos Pena is 1x9 with 4K:3BB. Carlos Corporan is 2x6 with a double.

*Wilson has thrown his fastball 55.7% of the time this season, with it sitting at an average of 90.5mph (down from 91.7mph average in 2012). He's also mixing in a curve (18%), changeup (10.3%), cutter (9.8%) and a slider (6.2%).
*Wilson has yet to strike out a batter when he's behind in the count (16 PAs - .556/.750/.889). With RISP, opponents are hitting .625/.727/1.000 (5x8 with three walks).

*Phil Humber takes the mound for Houston, and has allowed 10H/4ER, 4K:3BB in 11.2IP this season. Against the Angels, Humber is 0-1 with 16H/8ER, 5K:5BB in 10.2IP.
*The current group of Angels are 11x31 with 3K:4BB against Humber. Pujols and Trout are both 2x4 with a homer for their careers.
*Humber has limited RHBs to a 2x21 line (.095/.095/.095) this season, and he has given up just one extra-base hit in his 49 batters faced.

Thoughts on the Astros, and the Angels

If you're like me, you simply could not believe what had taken place. First, the Astros get moved (against their will) to the AL West. One of the reasons I didn't start looking for flamethrowers on eBay was because now, at least, Albert Pujols wouldn't be able to slay the Astros every chance he got.

Then I saw the tweets roll in that the Angels had spent the GDP of 46 countries to sign Albert Pujols. And then C.J. Wilson. And I got mad. I wrote a one-word email to some friends, and I bet you can guess what that one word was.

But then I started to think objectively. A future division rival has just committed $327 million to two players who will not be worth it towards the end of their contracts. Before the realignment mess, I was hoping that the Cardinals would over-commit to Pujols, because it would hamstring their payroll. So the Angels did it, instead.

Will Pujols out-produce his contract? Maybe. Seven of the ten players on Baseball-Reference to Pujols are Hall of Famers. And the other three are Ken Griffey, Juan Gonzalez, and Manny Ramirez; and Griffey is definitely a HOFer. Seriously, just take a second and look at Pujols' B-R page. It's insane.

C.J. Wilson is a different story. C.J. Wilson's similar players through age 30 are Joe Page, Paul Lindblad, Joe Price, Ray Narleski, Grant Jackson, Bob Chipman, Dave Hamilton, Fred Scherman, Don Mossi, and Ricky Horton. Exactly.

I don't know about the Angels' financial flexibility, but with paying Vernon Wells for three more years, and Jared Weaver through 2016, it's unlikely they'll be adding too terribly much in the future (not that they necessarily need to.) But they've just committed to Albert Pujols until 2021, and C.J. Wilson through 2017.

That said, where we should be concerned is through an existing AL West war. If the Rangers answer the Angels' moves by signing Prince Fielder, or...I don't know who's left, but if the Rangers answer with their own high-splash signing, it's not good for the rebuilding Astros. Should this happen, and the Angels/Rangers are looking like the US and Soviet Union in the late 1950s and the Astros are, you know, Bermuda, where the fallout will be terrible if shots are fired, it's a bad position to be in.

Luckily for us, after six hours, Jeff Luhnow looks like a freaking genius.

I find this conversation improbable

Evan Grant talked to C.J. Wilson about his triple in last night's debacle. Apparently this happened:

"As soon as I hit it, I see it rocketing up there, I'm like, 'Dude, Bourn is nowhere near that. I'm digging.' " Wilson told the Ben and Skin show on KESN-FM on Wednesday. "So, I'm running and I look up and the ball is still flying ... Right off the gate I was like, 'Oh, this is a triple.' With my sore foot, starting to act up by about the sixth or seventh step I hit first base and then Carlos Lee looks at me and he's like, "Holy crap, Dude, you crushed that ball.' and I was like, 'Yeah, man, I'm a deer. Check this out.' And we said that to each other and if you look at the video you can see him running next to me for like three steps as I motor on to second base. And I was kind of laughing the whole time."

I'm calling bullcrap.