Recap for G144 - Astros @ Reds

Terrible. Just awful. I watched the whole thing, and I never thought the Astros were going to win this game. As usual, I was right, and the Reds won 3-1. That pushes the Reds to 8-3 over the Astros so far this season. Wandy has now thrown three straight games in which he has given up two runs or less, and it's also the sixth straight start in which Wandy has struck out 6+ batters.

Let's just do the thing:
Wandy: 6IP, 5H/2ER, 8K:2BB, 12/24 first-pitch strikes, 35/68 non-contact strikes (20 called:15 swinging)
Gervacio: 0.1IP, 1K:1BB, 1/2 FPS, 3/4 NCS (1c:2s)
Wright: 0IP, 1H, 0/1 FPS, 0/1 NCS
Fulchino: 1.2IP, 1H/1ER, 2K:0BB, 7/17 NCS (2c:5s)

It's pretty disgusting that the pitching staff has to throw something better than a quality start to get a chance to win. But Jay Bruce came off the DL and hit a go-ahead two-run single for the winning margin. Brandon Phillips became the first Red ever to get 20 homers, 20 doubles, and 20 steals in three consecutive seasons.

The Astros had their chances, and were 1x7 with runners in scoring position (Tejada getting the lone RISP hit, but the Astros' one run came on a double from Carlos Lee in which Berkman hustled from first to give the Astros a fleeting lead. That, however, was the best I've seen Berkman run since his calf injury in July. But they did have a runner in scoring position in each of the first two innings, but predictably, did nothing. And that doesn't even count when Carlos Lee got picked off second base for no good reason.

Michael Bourn stole second in the first inning for his 55th stolen base, which is tops in the National League, and puts him two behind Carl Crawford and six behind Jacoby Ellsbury. The next closest to Bourn is Nyjer Morgan, with 42.

Pitch Count Hero: Michael Bourn - 20 pitches in 4 PAs (2x4); Wandy Rodriguez - 15 pitches in 3 PAs (0x3)

Pitch Count Punk: Humberto Quintero - 7 pitches in 3 PAs (0x3)

Man of the Match: I simply cannot give it to anyone on the offense, though Michael Bourn is certainly deserving. This one goes to Wandy, who is now 13-10 with a 2.77 ERA.

Goat of the Game: Kaz Matsui. Why is he still in the lineup? 0x3 with a sacrifice, but his OBP is now .297.

Matchup for G144 - Astros @ Reds

After going 8-19 in July, the Reds have gone 19-22 since, but come into this series having one just one of their last seven games (this is after winning 12 of the previous 14 games). Of course, the Reds are 7-3 against Houston this season.

Wandy Rodriguez

Wandy gets the ball tonight, and will set a career-high for IP tonight when he records his first out of the game, at 183IP. Since the fateful Milwaukee game (4IP, 10ER), Wandy is 2-2 with a 1.54 ERA, giving up six earned runs in 35IP. Only an Astros pitcher could lose two games with a 1.54 ERA.

Last three appearances:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
8/30 @ARI	6	7/4	7:3	8/9	109/65
9/4 vPHI	7	7/0	7:0	9/12	111/82
9/9 vATL	7	3/1	6:2	9/9	85/59

The question is how Wandy will respond after declining to come out for the 8th inning vs. Atlanta with shoulder fatigue. It's something to keep an eye on.

2009 road: 5-7 (15 starts), 85.2IP, 89H/39BB, 4.10 ERA/1.46 WHIP, 83K:36BB
2009 vs. Cincinnati: 2-1 (3 starts), 18IP, 17H/1ER, 0.50 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 18K:6BB

Important to note that Wandy had the outing with six unearned runs against Cincinnati, but didn't pitch all that well. Still, they're impressive stats.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: .253/.321/.405, 130K:50BB
vs Lefties: .182/.230/.259, 38K:9BB

When swinging at the first pitch (70): .314/.314/.500, 7XBH (3HR)
After First-Pitch Strikes (397): .191/.227/.261, 122K:15BB
After First-Pitch Balls (282): .291/.406/.517, 46K:44BB

RISP: 33x138, .239/.321/.355, 31K:15BB
Runners on: 63x259, .243/.321/.344, 54K:26BB
2OwRISP: 16x69, .232/.346/.377, 17K:10BB

Bronson Arroyo

Arroyo has been absolutely dominating since the All-Star Break, throwing nine straight quality starts. Let's look at his Pre-ASG/Post-ASG splits:

Pre-ASG: 18 starts, 112IP, 125H/67ER, 59K:41BB, 5.38 ERA/1.48 WHIP, .287/.352/.484 against
Post-ASG: 11 starts, 78IP, 68H/21ER, 46K:21BB, 2.42 ERA/1.14 WHIP, .232/.289/.355 against

Last three appearances:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
8/30 vLA	7.1	6/2	3:2	12/12	103/69
9/4 @ATL	7	6/1	4:3	9/13	99/64
9/9 @COL	7	5/2	4:2	11/11	100/65

2009 home: 6-6 (15 starts), 4.30 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 98.1IP, 51K:34BB
2009 vs. Houston: 2-0 (2 starts), 2.25 ERA/0.94 WHIP, 16IP, 5K:1BB

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: .244/.311/.397, 67K:30BB
vs Lefties: .287/.344/.469, 38K:32BB

When swinging at the first pitch (96): .326/.333/.587, 10XBH (7HR)
After First-Pitch Strikes (388): .267/.298/.417, 75K:14BB
After First-Pitch Balls (328): .241/.360/.400, 30K:48BB

RISP: 39x162, .241/.323/.389, 24K:22BB
Runners on: 79x305, .259/.330/.413, 47K:32BB
2OwRISP: 23x81, .284/.396/.444, 13K:15BB

Recap for G45 - Astros @ Reds

Just your average, everyday 2h08m tail-whoopin' by the Reds. The Astros lost 6-1, and were swept in a three-game series at Cincinnati for the first time since September 2000.

Bronson Arroyo threw a complete game, allowing just six baseunners in nine innings, and the Reds scored four of their six runs on homers - one by Jerry Hairston Jr and two by Jay Bruce.

Let's just do the thing:

Paulino: 6IP, 7H/4ER, 4K:0BB
Arias: 1IP, 2H/0ER, 2K:0BB
Sampson: 1IP, 2H/1ER, 1K:1BB

Did Paulino do enough to stave off Backe? Probably not. But is he the only one deserving a little trip to the Hill Country to remember how to do his thing? Absolutely not.

Pitcher	Pit/Str	Strike%	BF/Outs	Efficiency%	GB/FB/K
Paulino	84/59	70.2%	25/18	72%	7/7/4
Arias	19/15	78.9%	5/3	60%	0/1/2
Sampson	27/16	59.3%	6/3	50%	2/0/1
Total	130/90	69.2%	36/24	66.7%	9/8/7

Paulino gave up all three homers while Quintero erred on a throw, leading to an unearned run. Notice the 46 pitches it took to get Arias and Sampson through two innings of relief work? Bronson Arroyo needed 92 pitches to get through all nine innings. Paulino actually got six of the first seven batters he faced, but Bruce's two homers both came on the first pitch of the ABs.

The Astros offense, as usual (lately), wasn't worth a whole lot. Tejada got a liner up the third base line to extend his hit streak to 11 games. Maysonet was 0x3 in his third game at 2nd base, while Keppinger was 1x3. Nobody had more than one hit, and the Dark Jerseys got their only run on a Lance Berkman sac fly, that scored Bourn in the first inning. The Astros got sat down nine in a row at one point.

Just a brutal series for the Astros. Hopefully a day off will clear some heads, we'll see if there are any moves made tomorrow before the series in Pittsburgh.

Man of the Match:
How about Michael Bourn? 1x3, only run of the game, stolen base, and a walk.

Goat of the Game:
Who's to say. How about Carlos Lee? 0x4 with a groundout, line out, line out, groundout. Goes a couple of feet either way and maybe he's 2x4. But he didn't.

Matchup for G45 - Astros at Reds

Game Three of this series in which the Astros try to avoid getting swept in consecutive series for the first time since June 2008 when they were swept at home by the Yankees and on the road at Baltimore.

This might be the last start we see from Felipe Paulino. Backe is eligible to come off the DL and will be pitching this week. Fulchino has shown himself to be at least reliable in the bullpen - something that Paulino was unable to do (and what we have discussed, at length, was a stupid decision).

Paulino

Good news for Paulino is that what may have been his finest two outings came against Cincinnati.

Against Cincinnati:

IP	H/ER	K:BB	ERA/WHIP
11.2	9/1	9:4	0.77/1.11

Against Everyone Else:

IP	H/ER	K:BB	ERA/WHIP
23.2	41/26	16:14	5.32/2.32

I did some looking, and last year Roy induced more fly balls than ground balls in 13 of his 32 starts. So far this season, Roy has had more FBs than GBs in five of his ten starts, including each of his last four.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 26x77, .338/.420/.455, 10K:9BB
vs Lefties: 17x47, .362/.455/.596, 12K:7BB

When swinging at the first pitch (17): .467/.500/.933, 4XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (63): .404/.452/.509, 10K:4BB
After First-Pitch Balls (67): .250/.400/.385, 12K:12BB

RISP: 19x41, .463/.542/.561, 9K:6BB
Runners on: 24x64, .375/.467/.484, 14K:9BB
2OwRISP: 11x19, .579/.636/.632, 4K:3BB

Brutal.

How are these Reds doing against Paulino this season?

Red	HxAB	XBH-RBI	K:BB
Nix	4x5	2-1	1:0
Gonzalez	2x4	0-0	1:0
Taveras	2x4	0-0	0:2
Bruce	0x3	0-0	1:0
Hairston	0x3	0-0	1:0
Hernandez	0x5	0-0	1:0
Phillips	0x3	0-0	0:0
Bruce	0x6	0-0	1:0

Bronson Arroyo

Arroyo has made five starts in May. Two were great, one was good, one was alright, and one was really. Bad. He's pitched 31 innings in May, and given up 18 ER, though to be fair, nine of those earned runs were against Milwaukee in one inning on May 6. So take that out, and Arroyo has looked pretty good.

He did pitch against the Astros - and got the win - on April 20 when Geary was going through his turmoil. What happened there?

7IP, 9H/3ER, 2K:0BB, 2HR - to Berkman and Lee, back to back in the 6th - though Astros hitters were 4x7 leading off the inning.

Last three starts:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
5/11 @ ARI	7	10/5	5:0	10/16	123/81
5/17 @SD	7	6/3	4:4	6/17	119/70
5/22 vCLE	8	5/1	2:2	15/9	105/61

Arroyo has lowered his ERA from 7.02 to 5.79 in his last two starts.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 30x108, .278/.361/.556, 14K:12BB
vs Lefties: 32x106, .302/.359/.462, 15K:9BB

When swinging at the first pitch (27): .231/.231/.385, 2XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (110): .283/.309/.453, 22K:2BB
After First-Pitch Balls (104): .317/.447/.622, 7K:19BB

RISP: 16x49, .327/.393/.673, 7K:6BB
Runners on: 24x90, .267/.356/.478, 10K:11BB
2OwRISP: 10x26, .385/.484/.769, 4K:5BB

Reactions to G13 - Reds at Astros

Another tough loss to the Reds at home last night, 4-2. Here are the thoughts:

Pence:
“We still haven’t gotten the big hit. I’ve had a lot of opportunities. I think everyone has. Once again, we didn’t get it done. I’m going to be a winner. I’m going to find a way. In those times I want to be up to bat. This time I didn’t get them, but tomorrow’s a new day. This is where you find out what you’re made of when times get tough.”

I'll respectfully disagree with Mr. Pence. Berkman and Lee got two pretty big hits back-to-back to get the lead. Pence is 0x4 with 4Ks with the bases loaded this year...

Hampton:
“It was just one of those games. It’s one that we feel — I know I feel — we let slip away.”

Cooper:
“I know I’m sounding like a broken record. But another good outing from our starting pitching. We’re still scratching to try to get a big hit when we need one. And our bullpen needs to tighten up a little bit.”

Byrdak:
“It (stinks). They’re going out and giving us quality starts. And as a bullpen we have to go out there and do our job and keep the lead.

Jose de Jesus Ortiz:
With two lefthanders set to start for the Dodgers against the Astros, it might be time to drop Berkman to cleanup or fifth or put Lee at third or fifth. You can complain about the lineup only so much before people say, "Well, who in the heck is writing up the lineup card?" Coop, it's time to make some of your stars upset. Make them earn their place in the lineup instead of waiting for them to match the numbers on the back of their baseball cards, which show what you've done in the past, not what you're going to do. And the bullpen should be placed on notice, too. Other than Jose Valverde and Brocail and LaTroy Hawkins and Chris Sampson, nobody's job should be safe in the bullpen. If Geary continues to struggle, call up Alberto Arias or Bud Norris. If Felipe Paulino impresses in his next start, maybe it's time to keep him and put Brian Moehler in long relief after he returns.

Bronson Arroyo:
“We’ve got to keep riding the wave. Everything’s falling in place for us.”

Recap - G13, Reds at Astros

Last year the Reds won three games against the Astros all season long. The Reds won three games this series. The story of the night was, again, the piss-poor bullpen. Let's regard this series so far:

Friday night:
Oswalt leaves up 1-0, Astros lose 2-1

Saturday:
Wandy dominates, Astros win 7-0

Sunday:
Paulino leaves up 1-0, Astros lose 4-2

Monday:
Hampton leaves up 3-2, Astros lose 4-3

So with a solid, perfect bullpen the Astros sweep a four-game series against a division rival at home and push their record to 7-8. Now they're 4-9 and reeling facing the NL's hottest team in the Dodgers.

Last night Byrdak walked the first batter he faced, and Geary got lit up, taking the loss. Tonight, it was the other way around. Geary gave up an infield single to Taveras and then walked Jerry Hairston. Byrdak came in and got lit up for a 2-run double where Votto ended up on third. A perfect throw from Tejada nailed Hairston at the plate and prevented the 5th run from scoring.

Hampton: 6.1IP, 8H, 3ER, 5K:1BB
Geary: IP, 1H, 1ER 0K:1BB
Byrdak: .2IP, 1H, 1K
LaHawk: 1IP, 1K:1BB
Valverde: 1IP, 1K

Hampton started out a little rough, allowing two runs in the 1st in which he couldn't keep the ball down, and then he settled in. In his start last Wednesday against Pittsburgh, Hampton got ahead of batters, and he pitched brilliantly. In the first inning, three of the five batters he faced got a first-pitch ball. Two of them scored. The rest of the evening, 12 of the 21 batters got first-pitch strikes. None of them scored. Valverde worked a perfect inning, touching 96mph (I'll refrain from mentioning that he got taken to deep right, and a basket catch by Pence saved it from being extra-bases).

Pitcher	Pit/Str	Strike%	BF/Outs	Efficiency%	GB/FB/K
Hampton	100/67	67%	27/19	70.4%	12/2/5
Geary	7/3	42.9%	2/0	0%	0/0/0
Byrdak	8/8	100%	2/2	100%	1/0/0
LaHawk	17/10	58.8%	5/3	60%	2/0/1
Valverde	9/7	77.8%	3/3	100%	0/2/1

Offensively, it was kind of fun - for a while. Berkman and Lee went back-to-back, with Lee narrowly missing a home run in the 2nd inning. Blum was hitting 1x19 off Arroyo coming in, and got three hits. Hunter Pence got two hits, but managed to get squeezed in a quality AB and struck out looking with the bases loaded in the 8th, down 4-3. The Astros had Michaels on 3rd and Tejada on 1st with Berkman up, who popped up to shallow right; Lee walked; and Pence got rung up on a pitch that looked a little low. The Astros got 10 hits, but with Pudge getting a CS, GIDPs from Pudge and Tejada, and Pence looking like Willie Mays-Hayes trying to stretch a single into a double, the Astros are pretty good at taking themselves off the basepaths.

Man of the Match:
Geoff Blum. Went 3x4 and his .341 average is 2nd on the team.

Goat of the Game:
Geoff Geary. Didn't have time to break a sweat before Votto's double (triple) gave him whiplash and got the go-ahead runs across the plate.

Matchup for G13 - Reds @ Astros

Mike Hampton

Hampton has been a nice little surprise for the Astros - and at the same time a huge sigh of relief, so far, for Ed Wade. First start, April 10 @ St. Louis, Hampton threw 92 pitches to 24 batters, and only got 15 of them out, walking 4 and strking out 5. Second start, April 15 @ Pittsburgh, Hampton shined, throwing 95 pitches to 22 batters, striking out eight and walking one.

Let's have a gander at Hampton so far this season:
11IP, 8H, 3ER, 13K:5BB. 0HR. 2.46 ERA/ 1.18 WHIP

Lefties are hitting .294, Righties a silly .130. And this is interesting: when Hampton gets out to a 1-0 start, batters hit .083 (1x12); When Hampton throws a first-pitch strike, batters hit .318 (7x22).

Bronson Arroyo

And the Astros will face rock star, and sometime pitcher Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has been dealing with carpal tunnel syndrome. Just so you know. Draw your own conclusions from that. After 0-1, batters are hitting 5x26 (.192); after 1-0, batters have hit 5x14 (.357) so far this season.

2008 splits:

2009	2-0	4.38 ERA/1.46 WHIP	1 HR	7K:6BB
vs NYM	1W	6IP	8H/5ER	4K:2BB
@ MIL	1W	6.1IP	4H/1ER	3K:4BB

2008 splits:

Away	7-4	5.76 ERA/1.66 WHIP	15 HR	67K:35BB
vs. HOU	1-3	6.12 ERA/1.40 WHIP	2 HR	18K:7BB

Apr 23 H	L	3.2IP	10H/8ER	5K:1BB
July 29 A	L	6.1IP	8H/6ER	3K:0BB
Aug 9 H	L	6IP	5H/2ER	7K:4BB
Aug 26 A	W	9IP	5H/1ER	3K:2BB

A reminder: I only select players with at least 5 ABs.

Arroyo vs.	HxAB	BA/OBP/SLG	HR-RBI	K:BB
Matsui	4x8	.500/.556/.500	0-2	1:1
Tejada	11x27	.407/.448/.741	2-6	4:2
Lee	10x28	.357/.455/.571	1-8	6:4
Pence	5x15	.333/.412/.667	0-3	3:2
Berkman	12x38	.316/.435/.632	4-12	2:6
Pudge	1x6	.167/.167/.167	0-0	2:0
Bourn	1x6	.167/.286/.167	0-0	2:1
Blum	1x19	.053/.100/.053	0-0	4:0