Mills' seat is hot!

ESPN's Rumor Central (Insider-Only) says that the hottest managerial seat in baseball belongs to none other than Brad Mills.

The hottest seat belongs to Brad Mills, who has presided over the first 100-loss season in Houston Astros history. His contract is up at the end of the season and the Astros' ownership group, which is still Drayton McLane at this point, show little inclination of exercising an option for 2012.

I bet Brad Mills would be on his way to Boston before the press conference was over, should this happen. But that's the question: should the Astros fire Brad Mills? This is not the team Mills took over in 2009. You could make a case that he has had to play with a pretty crap hand. You could also make the case that he's made some seriously questionable decisions (such as seemingly murdering the career of Brett Wallace) with that crap hand. It's something we'll take into consideration, but if Mills goes, Ed Wade deserves some of the blame for making Mills play these cards.

Looking far ahead, MLB lists three other managers on the hot seat: Ozzie Guillen, Mike Quade, and Bob Melvin. Bob Melvin interviewed for the managerial position the last time around, but could be on his way to Chicago if buddy Brad Pitt Billy Beane becomes the new Cubs GM.

Sigh. Why the hell not make a season of uncertainty more uncertain?

UPDATE: WAIT A SECOND. The Astros exercised Mills' 2012 option last October, and added an option for 2013. So, suck it, ESPN.

UPDATED UPDATE: ESPN updated their post, saying:
Ken Davidoff had Mills on his list of managers on the hot seat in Sunday's Newsday, and we agree. While the Astros previously picked up Mills' 2012 option and added an option for 2013 (correcting what we said earlier this morning), his future has to be up in the air given the pending sale of the franchise to Jim Crane.

Melvin likely out; AC's thoughts on managers, in general

JJO's blog post has a few clarifications on this manager search:

Drayton McLane said multiple candidates for the Astros' managerial job were brought in for a second interview on Wednesday. He admitted Manny Acta was one, but McLane said Bob Melvin wasn't brought in...

..."We brought in some others. I don't want to go into details. Some of them I had not met, and we had several discussions. They were kind of brief on me."

I'm of the opinion that unless you interview with Drayton, you're not really going through a managerial interview with the Astros. So those who have made the second round are at least in the door.

Keep in mind, however, that unlike the other candidates, Garner, Clark and Pedrique don't need an introductory second interview with McLane to enter the finals.

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On this subject, we got a question in the ol' inbox (astroscounty@hotmail.com):

Constable,
You aren't posting any opinions about who should be the new manager. Why not?

That's one astute observation. But it's true. The reasons I'm not terribly concerned about who the new manager is are these:

-It's kind of a crapshoot. There wasn't anything to indicate that Joe Torre (whose managerial stock is falling slightly since leaving NY) or Tony LaRussa would be a great manager. There also wasn't anything to really suggest Fredi Gonzalez or Don Wakamatsu or Ron Washington would be good managers. And the thing about it is, a manager can be considered Great one year, and lousy the next (see: Garner, Phil). One year ago we all thought Cecil Cooper had done a pretty great job, and look where he was by May. So it's not like measuring a K:BB ratio, or SB%. There aren't any predictors to how well a manager may do.

-If Lance and Roy decide they're going to throw a fit (see: 2009) and pout, and wear t-shirts (which wasn't even funny. I could get on board if they made shirts that were actually funny) wondering if the manager really just did...whatever, then the manager doesn't have a chance. One advantage that the new manager will have is the backing of Ed Wade. Easy Eddie didn't hire Cecil Cooper. And that fact was made obvious. So if/when one of the Veterans decides to act like a 2nd grader at some point next season, it will be interesting to see what effect it has from a personnel standpoint.

So in conclusion, the reason I'm not so hopped up on the managerial search? It's not like a GM search, where you can evaluate trades and drafts. Once the next manager is announced, there will be plenty to go over, but it's hard to just look at some stats and make a PECOTA-style prediction.

Reactions to Melvin's interview

Bob Melvin's press conference following his interview:

Melvin, on the difference between the 2010 Astros and the 2005 Diamondbacks:
"Probably a little farther along here. We actually had to transition away from some of the veteran guys, the Luis Gonzalezes and Craig Counsells and so forth in Arizona and go to a younger group. I think the year we won in 2007 and we were like 25th in payroll and probably the youngest team in the National League. So a little different obviously in a situation like this when you have some veterans and some really good players. You're probably a little farther along. You're probably a little different in that it was more a of younger core group where as your core group here is more veteran.”

On decisions to be made, should he become manager:
I think there's some decisions to be made. Certainly with some of the players they have on the team, you don't have Lance Berkmans and Roy Oswalts and Carlos Lees and guys like that if you don't think you can win. Now the trick is to mix in your younger players with them and get headed in the right direction early on, gain some momentum and hope to kind of flourish off of that. A good core group here. I think anybody would be lucky in a situation like this.”

On his qualifications:
“I feel experience, one. Two, I've managed a veteran team in Seattle, won 93 games my first year there. Managed a younger group in Arizona. Obviously we got to the Championship Series there. This looks to be a mix of both. Having experience with both of those groups I feel like I'm a good candidate for this one.”

Justice's reaction:
If Bob Melvin gets a second interview when Drayton McLane returns from Europe next week, I have a strong feeling the Astros' owner is going to really, really like Melvin. Melvin is thin, clean cut and has a solid, solid resume. He's managed teams like the Astros are going to become. If the Astros are honest, they have to promise the next manager that they'll be patient and believe in a five-year plan. They're not going to win next year or in 2011. They need a guy who can keep the club respectable and usher in the mix of young players with the veterans.

After the first five press conferences of the Astros' candidates, Melvin appears to really stand out. I would not be shocked if he's the next manager of the Houston Astros.

Brian McTaggart:
5 of 10 Astros managerial candidates have interviewed. Here are my rankings: 1, Melvin. 2, Yost. 3, Clark. 4, Ready. 5, Pedrique.

Day Three: Melvin and Acta

So far, I'm guessing that Dave Clark and Ned Yost won their head-to-head interviews on Wednesday and Thursday (and I have no reason to think that). Today we get two solid candidates in Bob Melvin and Manny Acta. Today is also Melvin's first chance to throw Garner under the bus, who famously called Tal Smith to give a good reference of Bob Melvin, and ended up interviewing on Saturday.

Anyhow, McTaggart provided another tale of the tape of Melvin and Acta.

Melvin, notably:
Managed the Seattle Mariners in 2003-04 and Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005 until he was dismissed on May 9 of this year after a 12-17 start. He won 93 games with Seattle in 2003 but didn't make the playoffs and lost 99 games the following year. Melvin was hired by the Diamondbacks and led Arizona to the 2007 NL West title before being swept in the NLCS by the Colorado Rockies.

Interestingly, Melvin has no minor league managing/coaching experience.

Manny Acta:
Began managing at 1993 with the Auburn Astros of the New York-Penn League before moving to Quad City of the Midwest League in 1997. He took over the Astros' Gulf Coast League affiliate at Kissimmee in 1999 and won a league championship and managed again at Kissimmee in 2000.

Also, incredibly, McTaggart points out that the plane carrying the late Cory Lidle flew into an apartment building in New York actually hit Acta's apartment.

Hiring Melvin could lead to Price

Of course, one of the names on Wade's list is Bob Melvin. We learn from Larry Stone of the Seattle Times that hiring Melvin could lead to landing one of the up-and-coming (one of the worst phrases in the English language) pitching coaches in Bryan Price.

Price, who is working with the Phillies' minor-league pitching prospects, is pimped by Stone as a future managerial candidate. But if the Astros want to go on a 2-for-1 move, they should hurry, because the Marlins have already called about making Price their pitching coach.

And add Bob Melvin, while you're at it. And Al Pedrique

MyFoxHouston has a report that former Diam'ndbac's manager Bob Melvin has been contacted about the open managerial job in Houston.

Melvin:
"I'm honored to be considered for this job in what I consider to be a great organization that commits to winning every year. In that respect I am very happy."

And add Al Pedrique, as well. Wade:
"I think Al is a tremendous baseball man. I think he'll make an outstanding big league manager. Al is a great asset to the organization."

Whether or not he'll make an outstanding big league manager in Houston remains to be seen.

So to recap, here are you're confirmed managerial candidates (in no particular order):
Bob Melvin
Al Pedrique
Dave Clark
Tim Bogar
Brad Mills
Manny Acta

Jim Fregosi has not been confirmed but is strongly linked to the candidacy.