Monday Morning Hot Links

*Random 2017 Astros fact:

There are currently 38 players on the Astros' 40-Man Roster. The deadline to set the 40-Man roster for Rule 5 purposes is at 7pm Central today.

*FanGraphs: Houston ranks 8th in total guaranteed contracts owed for 2018 and taking on Verlander's contract as well as increases in arbitration for some key players (Keuchel, Springer, McCullers) will mean - obviously - that their payroll will increase.

*Here's Bill James on Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Win Shares, WAR, and luck. And here's the follow-up.

*It took me a while, but I wrote about what CoolStandings told us about the 2017 Astros season.

*Joe Musgrove asked for fans' World Series tattoos.

*If you're planning on getting in line for Altuve's autograph at the Academy in Katy (I-10 and Grand Parkway) today...you're about eight hours too late.

*From the NCAA, who took time out of their busy schedule of screwing athletes, Evan Gattis' road to the World Series went through UT-Permian Basin.

*Lance McCullers and Alex Bregman were at Minute Maid Park yesterday for the Shriners Game.

*Here's Justin Verlander standing next to a pre-makeup extra on The Walking Dead:

Wow!!! So badass watching @eminem kill it last night at @nbcsnl #detroit #legend #walkonwater #stan #lovethewayyoulie https://t.co/ii7Ywb4OYN pic.twitter.com/dpWqU6duEq

— Justin Verlander (@JustinVerlander) November 19, 2017

*Leeds United beat Boro 2-1.

*Christian Pulisic: Hope of a nation

Thursday Morning Hot Links

Hear's wut ewe knead too no:

*Jexas went to the prospective season ticket holder dinner last night.

*One day after hernia surgery, Evan Gattis walked a mile and is optimistic about his recovery time.

*Gattis' surgery frees up Spring Training ABs for younger players.

*Drellich says of Gattis' recovery the door is cracked for young guys, but it isn't wide open.

*Anthony Castrovince asks a question of all 30 teams. For the Astros: Will Gattis be ready for Opening Day?

*Here's a great profile on Lance McCullers from Tampa Bay Online. McCullers has been literally chopping wood three days a week to improve his grip and forearm strength and ran to the gym in every Italian city he and his new wife visited on their honeymoon.

*Giles and Fister are the headliners of the small group of new Astros going to camp.

*Keith Law ranked the Astros' farm system 17th in baseball (Insider subscription required).

*In 1994 Bill James predicted Hall of Fame elections for the next 25 years.

*Preston Tucker's high school retired his jersey.

*J.D. Martinez signed a 2yr/$18.5m deal with the Tigers.

Before you go: Lance McCullers has a custom PS4 controller...

Lance McCullers Astros custom PS4 controller is out of this world tight. Cc: @ControllerChaos @LMcCullers43 pic.twitter.com/xa5hSt9SKB

— ShtBallPlayrsDo (@ShtBallPlayrsDo) February 10, 2016

Bill James thinks little of the Astros young talent

The latest from the Angels blog on the Orange County Register is reporting from Bill James' Gold Mine 2010, that the Astros have stayed consistent from last year. In that they have the 30th-ranked talent pipeline in the Majors.

Bill James' 2010 projections

Captip to Street for the link to Bill James 2010 projections (from JC Bradbury's unbelievable Sabernomics site, published with permission).

We'll delve into this in depth later, but let's just pull the Astros' 2010 players:

Hitters

Lance Berkman
'10 Proj: 153G, 157x554 (.283/.406/.518), 31HR, 104 RBI, 96R, 118K:109BB
'09 Stat: 136G, 126x360 (.274/.399/.509), 25HR, 80 RBI, 73R, 98K:97BB

Geoff Blum
'10 Proj: 113G, 72x306 (.235/.297/.359), 7HR, 36RBI, 30R, 52K:24BB
'09 Stat: 120G, 94x381 (.247/.314/.367), 10HR, 49RBI, 34R, 61K:33BB

Michael Bourn
'10 Proj: 150G, 156x575 (.271/.341/.360), 5HR, 37RBI, 91R, 121K:60BB
'09 Stat: 157G, 173x606 (.285/.354/.384), 3HR, 35RBI, 97R, 140K:63BB

Jason Castro
'10 Proj: 97G, 95x359 (.265/.325/.343), 3HR, 36RBI, 46R, 54K:32BB

Chris Coste
'10 Proj: 74G, 48x191 (.251/.309/.366), 4HR, 23RBI, 18R, 36K:13BB
'09 Stat: 88G, 46x205 (.224/.301/.317), 2HR, 18RBI, 15R, 55K:22BB

Darin Erstad
'10 Proj: 73G, 29x119 (.244/.297/.319), 1HR, 12RBI, 15R, 24K:8BB
'09 Stat: 107G, 26x150 (.194/.268/.328), 2HR, 11RBI, 13R, 13K:14BB

Chris Johnson
'10 Proj: 116G, 92x346 (.266/.300/.425), 11HR, 39RBI, 38R, 78K:17BB

Jeff Keppinger
'10 Proj: 115G, 107x367 (.292/.348/.395), 5HR, 35RBI, 44R, 26K:30BB
'09 Stat: 107G, 78x305 (.256/.320/.387), 7HR, 29RBI, 35R, 33K:27BB

Carlos Lee
'10 Proj: 152G, 172x587 (.293/.351/.503), 29HR, 107RBI, 79R, 61K:49BB
'09 Stat: 160G, 183x610 (.300/.343/.489), 26HR, 102RBI, 65R, 51K:41BB

Kaz Matsui
'10 Proj: 125G, 117x445 (.263/.317/.380), 8HR, 40RBI, 60R, 82K:33BB
'09 Stat: 132G, 119x476 (.250/.302/.357), 9HR, 46RBI, 56R, 85K:34BB

Jason Michaels
'10 Proj: 87G, 38x155 (.245/.328/.381), 4HR, 20RBI, 21R, 37K:17BB
'09 Stat: 102G, 32x132 (.237/.322/.430), 4HR, 16RBI, 17R, 38K:16BB

Hunter Pence
'10 Proj: 155G, 175x601 (.291/.351/.509), 28HR, 89RBI, 85R, 107K:53BB
'09 Stat: 159G, 165x585 (.282/.346/.472), 25HR, 72RBI, 76R, 109K:58BB

Humberto Quintero
'10 Proj: 71G, 43x173 (.249/.286/.358), 3HR, 18RBI, 15R, 30K:7BB
'09 Stat: 60G, 37x157 (.236/.286/.376), 4HR, 14RBI, 11R, 41K:7BB

Miguel Tejada
'10 Proj: 157G, 186x622 (.299/.342/.449), 18HR, 91RBI, 84R, 62K:32BB
'09 Stat: 158G, 199x635 (.313/.340/.455), 14HR, 86RBI, 83R, 48K:19BB

Of course, it's interesting to see Tejada's projections. It's hard to imagine pretty impossible to imagine Tommy Manzella coming close to those numbers.

Some other notes from this:
-Berkman is no longer a .300 hitter.
-Hunter Pence is emerging as maybe the Astros' best #3 hitter.
-Carlos Lee will do what Carlos Lee does
-Jason Castro is projected to be a major upgrade at catcher.

What else do you take?

Pitching projections

Starting Pitching

Quick note. I did not post Russ Ortiz or Mike Hampton's 2010 projections. Why? I think that's pretty obvious.

Roy Oswalt
'10 Proj: 33 starts, 205IP, 159K:48BB, 3.60 ERA/1.28 WHIP
'09 Stat: 30 starts, 181.1IP, 138K:42BB, 4.12 ERA/1.24 WHIP

Wandy Rodriguez
'10 Proj: 33 starts, 212IP, 179K:75BB, 4.12 ERA/1.40 WHIP
'09 Stat: 33 starts, 205.2IP, 193K:63BB, 3.02 ERA/1.24 WHIP

Bud Norris
'10 Proj: 19 starts, 107IP, 104K:50BB, 5.05 ERA/1.66 WHIP
'09 Stat: 10 starts, 55.2IP, 54K:25BB, 4.53 ERA/1.51 WHIP

Brian Moehler
'10 Proj: 30 starts, 163IP, 89K:47BB, 5.08 ERA/1.52 WHIP
'09 Stat: 29 starts, 154.2IP, 91K:51BB, 5.47 ERA/1.54 WHIP

Felipe Paulino
'10 Proj: 24G (24 starts), 130IP, 118K:62BB, 5.19 ERA/1.62 WHIP
'09 Stat: 23G (17 starts), 97.2IP, 93K:37BB, 6.27 ERA/1.67 WHIP

Note:
-Wandy is due for a regression back to his pre-2009 numbers.
-After Wandy, Bill James' predictions are iffy, to be complimentary.

Relief Pitching

Alberto Arias
'10 Proj: 33G, 33IP, 24K:14BB, 4.64 ERA/1.61 WHIP (dividing baserunners/9 innings by 9)
'09 Stat: 42G, 45.2IP, 39K:19BB, 3.35 ERA/1.49 WHIP

Yorman Bazardo
'10 Proj: 19G (3 starts), 36IP, 21K:14BB, 5.75 ERA/1.72 WHIP
'09 Stat: 10G (6 starts), 32IP, 17K:22BB, 7.88 ERA/1.84 WHIP

Tim Byrdak
'10 Proj: 85G, 68IP, 67K:37BB, 4.24 ERA/1.45 WHIP
'09 Stat: 76G, 61.1IP, 58K:36BB, 3.23 ERA/1.22 WHIP

Jeff Fulchino
'10 Proj: 73G, 93IP, 71K:41BB, 4.94 ERA/1.60 WHIP
'09 Stat: 61G, 82IP, 71K:27BB, 3.40 ERA/1.18 WHIP

Sam Gervacio
'10 Proj: 56G, 42IP, 49K:18BB, 3.64 ERA/1.33 WHIP
'09 Stat: 29G, 21IP, 25K:8BB, 2.14 ERA/1.14 WHIP

LaTroy Hawkins
'10 Proj: 62G, 63IP, 45K:17BB, 3.29 ERA/1.26 WHIP (0 saves)
'09 Stat: 65G, 63.1IP, 45K:16BB, 2.13 ERA/1.20 WHIP (11 saves)

Chris Sampson
'10 Proj: 32G, 35IP, 18K:7BB, 3.86 ERA/1.31 WHIP
'09 Stat: 49G, 55.1IP, 33K:21BB, 5.04 ERA/1.57 WHIP

Jose Valverde
'10 Proj: 60G, 67IP, 78K:27BB, 3.22 ERA/1.23 WHIP (38 saves)
'09 Stat: 52G, 54IP, 56K:21BB, 2.33 ERA/1.13 WHIP (25 saves)

Wesley Wright
'10 Proj: 53G, 52IP, 56K:33BB, 4.85 ERA/1.61 WHIP
'09 Stat: 49G, 44.2IP, 47K:25BB, 5.44 ERA/1.75 WHIP

What do you take from this?