Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros continued to do good things and everyone's favorite closer got in a game for the first time in a week to shut it down. Astros win, 4-2, their 7th comeback win of the season. Houston is back on top in the AL West by a half-game.

*McCullers: 5IP, 5H/2ER, 3K:4BB. 52 of his 89 pitches were for strikes. Peacock (2IP, 3K), Devenski (1IP) and Giles (1IP, 1H) held Oakland to one hit and four strikeouts over the last four innings.

McCullers threw 26 changeups (a career-high tied with his last start) to 28 curves. McCullers:
My breaking ball has been a little bit elusive so far this year. I've flashed it at times, but it's hard when you know how to pitch one way and that way is not really there for you....If anyone knows where my curveball's at, I'd like it overnighted to Minute Maid. 

Hinch, on Giles getting the game-ending GIDP, one week after getting blown up against the Yankees:
It was nice to see him close out the game, especially under a little bit of duress...He's coming off some emotional outings, and for him to get the ball where he needed, it's nice to see.

Oakland scored their two runs on McCullers' Wild Pitch (he had two) and a sac fly.

*McCullers and the Astros showed Class when McCullers stepped off the mound before Stephen Piscotty's first AB to let the crowd give him a standing ovation. McCullers:
It's tough, man. I feel for him and I feel for his family. From everything I've heard he's an awesome guy. I just wanted him to have some time to be able to come up and have the fans recognize him. I wanted that moment to be his.

Emotional standing O for Stephen's first AB. Then he singled for Gretchen. pic.twitter.com/RvY80qu7Z0

— A's on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) May 9, 2018

*George Springer was 2x4 with a walk and 2RBI. Springer's last ten games: 18x45 (.400), 9 RBI.

*Other two-hit games: Gurriel, Marwin. Marwin Gonzalez is 7x14 in his last three games.

*Bregman hit his 3rd home run of the season. He got his 3rd HR in the Astros' 45th game of the season in 2017.

*Seeing as how the bottom of the lineup actually got some hits last night (5-9 in the lineup: 6x20, three runs scored), Hinch is pleased:
The first two games here, we've gotten production out of the bottom of the order and that sets up nicely for the top of the order. When the bottom of the order contributes, it's a complete lineup.

*FanGraphs: The Astros aren't the only team adding spin.

*Speaking of spin rate, it's worth mentioning that the Friday, May 18 pitching matchup is projected to be Tyler Bauer vs. Justin Verlander.

*Now at 47 straight games, Carlos Correa is six games shy of tying Adam Everett's franchise-high errorless streak.

*Over at WTHB, Jayne has a great interview with Corpus 1B Taylor Jones who is...no longer under the radar.

*Couple of notable minor-league transactions yesterday:
-Justin Ferrell was promoted from Buies Creek to Corpus. Ferrell had thrown 16.2IP, 6H/3ER, 24K:4BB.
-JJ Matijevic was promoted from Quad Cities to Buies Creek. Matijevic was hitting .354/.446/.708.

*Brett Adcock was a little more wild last night for Buies Creek, but ran his scoreless IP streak to 17 with 5IP, 2H/0ER, 7K:5BB. Wild West Sheriff Kit Scheetz struck out eight in four perfect innings.

*James Paxton became the first Canadian to throw a no-hitter in Canada. ESPN's David Schoenfield asks if Paxton is for real or not. Having watched him dominate the Astros for three years (which probably means I've watched more Mariners games than all of ESPN's writers combined), yeah, I'd say James Paxton is for real.

*SI: Paxton's no-hitter is a perfect example of modern baseball.

*Charlie Crockett, descendant of David Crockett (NOTE: NOT "DAVY") talked music, race, and Texas. He's playing at the Houston House of Blues Friday night.

*Andre Dawson has owned a funeral home in Florida for ten years.

A quick visit to Spring Training

I randomly found myself with a day off, 60 miles south of West Palm Beach (in Miami for work), which could mean only one thing: I was going to Spring Training.

It was my first time attending & I felt a bit like a kid at Disneyland unable to decide which ride to enjoy first. There's so much going on all at one time & I only had about three hours to take it all in.

A few thoughts about my time at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches:

*Morning stretches started as soon as we got there & seeing everyone out on the field got me pretty hype for the 2017 season.

*Being able to see Lance McCullers throw live BP was exciting and possibly the only thing I stayed still for longer than ten minutes (like I said, there's so much going on). He looked comfortable, focused & in great spirits during & after the session.

*Tyler White & Yulieski Gurriel took time during fielding practice rotating out at 1B. I personally am a fan of Marwin Gonzales at first but since he can be utilized in a few positions, a solid first baseman is necessary & long overdue.

*Seeing Adam Everett & Roy Oswalt at camp brought back the warm fuzzies of 2005. Seeing them dispense their wisdom & advice to these young players made me hopeful that not only did they have a hand in getting the 2005 team to the World Series but that the same could be said of them for the 2017 team.

*I need the giant Astros logo outside of the main stadium in my front yard.

*I can't wait for April 3rd.

I took a few pics & posted them on my Twitter feed (@jexas). Enjoy.

Sunday Morning Hot Links

*The Masked Marvel has the recap of last night's thumping of the Angels. Best recaps in the bidness! The best! All others are just sad!

*The Masked Marvel reviewed last year's trades.

*The Rangers beat the Royals. The Mariners beat the piss out of the Blue Jays. The A's beat the Rays.

*So the Astros are still 2.5 GB of Northeast Cleburne. The Red Sox and Blue Jays both lost, so the Astros are 2.0 GB of Boston and 0.5 GB of Toronto for a Wild Card spot.

*FanGraphs has the Astros at 50.4% to win the division (Ramgers at 38.4%) and 67.5% to make the playoffs.

*Why does Evan Gattis hit better when he's at catcher than at DH? Hinch:
I'm sure someone smarter than me can figure it out. I don't know if it's actually true in the numbers...

Note: It is. It absolutely is true in the numbers. In 22 games where Gattis has caught, he's hitting .310/.337/.702. In 46 games at DH, he's hitting .175/.260/.319.

I think it's the result of keeping him occupied, keeping his mind occupied, keeping his mind in the game. 

*With his 36th career home run, Carlos Correa is now the Astros' all-time home run leader for shortstops. Correa:
It's a great accomplishment, I guess, but the focus is to win ballgames every single day. 

It took Adam Everett 635 games to reach 35 home runs as a shortstop.

It took Correa 191 to get 36.

— Jordan Ray (@JordanLRay) July 24, 2016

*Fresno manager Tony DeFrancesco, on left fielder Alex Bregman:
The way the Astros are now with (Correa and Altuve) in the middle of their infield, for Alex to impact the game, it's going to be at a different position. And the way Bregman is swinging the bat real well right now, hopefully he can help them out real soon.

*Tommy Stokke has the details of Chris Sale's grounding. One-word version: Unbelievable.

*Ken Rosenthal writes that this unreal turn of events won't cause the White Sox to slash Sale's price. The Rangers and White Sox haven't made much progress towards a deal.

*Jon Heyman talked to a GM who called this starting pitcher market "the worst" he'd ever seen it.

*Jarred Cosart is coming up from Triple-A to start for the Marlins on Monday.

*Ichiro Suzuki is a big fan of the Hall of Fame.

How bad were Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus?

Those of you who have been reading for a while know that one of the things I like to talk about is the history of the Astros, as seen in my Random Random Astro, Random Trade Tree, and historic scouting report posts. One thing I've been thinking about lately, prompted by many comments on other posts on this site, is whether or not the Everett/Ausmus black hole reputation is deserved, and if so, were they able to make up for it with defense, which is the counterpoint to the widely held view of their worthlessness.

Ausmus and Everett were teammates from 2001 to 2007, though Everett was only a regular from 2003-2006. Over that period, we'll look at offensive value and defensive value. I have no idea how this exercise will turn out; I'm not out to prove things with a preconceived notion one way or the other. Since I'm researching this as I type it, we'll discover the truth together.

Offense

It's no secret that Adam Everett was a pretty light-hitting player. His best offensive season was probably 2004, when he hit .273/.317/.385 which still put him 19% below the league average hitter that season. Over the four year period we're looking at he hit .252/.302/.369, "good" for 28% below league average during those seasons. In summary, he was worth 56.6 runs less than the average batter.

Between 2003 and 2006, Ausmus was even worse. His best year was 2005 when he hit .258/.351/.331, which was 18% below league average that year. The other three season in this sample he was a consistent 43% below average each season. That's really bad. In total for these four years he hit just .241/.317/.307, putting him an awesomely bad 37% worse than the league average hitter over that period. In total, he cost the Astros 104.3 runs.

So, from 2003 to 2006, the Astros SS/C combo took about 161 runs off the board, or about 40 runs per season.

But offense is only half the game.

Defense

Defensive metrics are a bit trickier, and certainly not perfect, but they'll give us a rough idea of how many of those lost runs this pair of players were able to reclaim in the field.

Everett was unsurprisingly above average as a shortstop, and actually improved every year from 2003 to 2006. In 2006 alone he saved 31.7 runs compared to the average shortstop and totaled 81.3 runs saved over the four year period, nearly 30 runs better than the 2nd best shortstop over that period.

Though Ausmus' best defensive years came earlier in his career, he was still above average for the Astros over these four years. In total, he saved 32.5 runs according to Fangraphs. That may not paint the whole picture, though. One of the cutting edges in advanced statistical analysis right now is in pitch framing, which you may have heard about when the Astros traded for Hank Conger this past offseason. According to some reports, Ausmus may have been one of the best pitch framers in recent history. I can't find numbers for the entire four year run we're looking at, but in 2005 and 2006 alone, Ausmus' framing may have saved another 42 runs. Even if we assume those numbers are inflated, a safe estimate could be that he saved 10 runs per season by framing. Add that to his Fangraphs numbers, which don't include framing, Ausmus saved 72.5 from 2003 to 2006.

That puts our combo at about 154 runs saved from 2003-2006, let's say 38 per season.

Basic math says that 38 minus 40 is negative 2 runs per season, but just to be sure, I'll plug these numbers into a pythagorean wins calculator to see if a run saved is worth more, less, or the same as a run lost. By comparing our new pythag wins to the Astros actual pythag wins for those season we find that having a perfectly league average batter and fielder at each position would have actually cost the Astros about .5 wins per season. Not much, but not nothing, either.

Probably the best way to sum this up would be to say that the Astros neither gained nor lost anything in the standings by running out two horrible hitting but outstanding defensive players during the years of Ausmus and Everett.

Astros fire Porter and Trembley on Labor Day

The Labor Day bit just adds to the irony.

As of a few hours ago, the Astros announced that Bo Porter and Dave Trembley have been "relieved of their duties", and replaced with organisational managerial stand-in Tom Lawless and ex-player/roving instructor Adam Everett respectively.

The Front Office Press Release specifically stated that the firing was nothing to do with current record, but more to do with differing philosophies.  In fact, Luhnow specifically takes the blame for the win-loss record, while pointing out that perhaps Bo was not paddling in the same direction.  The press release provides no real further detail.

The shakeup comes on the first off-day after Ken Rosenthal's story broke that cited numerous anonymous sources that discussed "tension" in the front office.  The Chronicle Astros Blog commented on the story, seemingly pouring cold water on it.  Fangraphs, in an earlier conversation, detected no animosity or hint of difficulty between Porter and Luhnow.  Then this happened, and it appears that Rosenthal's sources were correct, and that the Astros may have been waiting for the off day to do the firing.

I may perhaps publish a long and rambling, overly wordy article on this later in the day, but my first thought is that this must relate to a relatively recent event or series of events that made Porter's position untenable.  As the interface between the number-inclined Front Office (all decisions made by a computer algorithm, donchaknow!) and the human-beings with thoughts and feelings running around on the field, there is always going to be some friction, and the job is more about how that friction is handled.  Handle it the wrong way, and the wrong message gets sent to the players; handle it right, and that is important in getting the buy in of everyone.

My second thought is one likely shared by most of you.  Man, the hits for the PR side of the organisation keep coming.  When do the Astros stop resembling a joke??  Winning is going to cure a lot of hard feelings (if it ever happens) but at the moment, the organisation looks chaotic and disorganised at times, with periods of relative calm in between.  The Ground Control leaks were bad, this is bad, Jarred Cosart's chip is bad, Bud Norris' earlier comments were bad... you get the point.  Sheesh, when will this all stop.

Finally, it seems that Bo Porter is the first casualty of the new regime.  He came in at the very bottom - at a critical time of the rebuild - and won't get to see the fruits of his labours, or the rewards for lots of losing.  That, to me, is sad.  Best of luck, Bo.

ESPN has a good early take which is very speculative here.  I am sure more ink will be spilt about this story in the next few days.

Enjoy Labor Day.

Wednesday Afternoon Hot Links

Here's what's happening as we are now eight depressing hours from first pitch because the AL West sucks.

*Brent Strom says Dallas Keuchel confuses the hell out of hitters

*Tyler Kolek will attend a pre-draft workout at Minute Maid Park, but won't throw. So it's like a pre-draft hangout session. The Astros had a workout in Huntington Beach on Sunday, but neither Brady Aiken nor Alex Jackson attended.

*Adam Everett and Paul Ricciarini will be the Astros' representatives at next month's draft.

*Craig Biggio is one of 50 nominees for the New Jersey Hall of Fame which, oddly enough, is not limited to sports.

*You can't get Killen's brisket at Minute Maid Park anymore.

*Here's the Hardball Times with the value of a draft pick.

Astros coaching carousel

First base coach Dave Clark and bullpen coach Dennis Martinez were fired yesterday, and Doug Brocail was moved from pitching coach into a Special Assistant to the GM role.

Luhnow:
I think the reality is we did not perform the way we wanted to. It's nobody's fault, but we came to the conclusion that bringing in a few new and different voices would help.

The struggles among the pitching staff are well-documented, and given that the 2013 Astros had the Worst Bullpen Ever In The History Of Baseball, it's easy to see that someone was going to take the fall for it. Luhnow says Martinez was let go so the new pitching coach could have a say in the hiring of the bullpen coach.

Brocail will oversee the development of the pitching prospects in the Astros system, and the Astros would like to have a coach who has played middle infield (roving instructor Adam Everett?):
One thing we're lacking is a coach that's had middle infield experience...That's probably going to be high on our list, probably someone who can bring along Villar and Altuve.

Via Fox26, Luhnow said of Clark:
It was difficult (to let Clark go)...At the end of the day, he's an outfield-baserunning instructor. Those are both Bo's strengths. 

Adam Everett hearts Jonathan Villar

Concerned about Jonathan Villar? Adam Everett isn't. Well, he isn't concerned about his physical ability...his mental make-up? Well...

If you remember, Jonathan Villar punched a door between innings and broke his hand last July, which cost him six weeks.

Everett:

The biggest thing when you become a major league player is the mental grind. There’s a lot of people that have the physical ability and tools, but it’s mentally whenever you’re out here 162 games...The kid just turned 22. It’s not like he’s 24, 25 or 26 years old and we’re waiting on him. He’s got some special ability, and I think he can do it.

Minor-League Managers and Staff

Building on some news from yesterday, the Astros have announced minor-league staffing assignments. 

Morgan Ensberg: Roving Instructor. "Will be with Lancaster for home games and scout the Cal League or serve as a roving instructor while Lancaster is on the road."

Adam Everett: Infield Instructor. Will shuttle between the Major-League team and minor-league infielders. 

Vince Coleman: Outfielding/Baserunning Development Specialist, Quad Cities

Managers:

Oklahoma City: Tony DeFrancesco

Corpus: Keith Bodie (2012 Texas League Manager of the Year)

Lancaster: Rodney Linares (Returns for 2nd season with JetHawks)

Quad Cities: Omar Lopez (Greeneville's manager for 2011-12)

Tri-City: Ed Romero (manager of Greeneville in 2010

Greeneville: Josh Bonifay (managerial debut, Lexington's hitting coach in 2012)

GCL Astros: Edgar Alfonzo (previously GCL Astros' hitting coach)

DSL Astros: Johan Maya

Tom Lawless is an infield developmental specialist for OKC, and Mark Bailey will be the catching developmental specialist for Corpus. Former Gold-Glove OF Cesar Cedeno will be Bonifay's hitting coach in Greeneville. 

Quad Cities GM Stefanie Brown:

"It's a somewhat unique set-up, but it shows the emphasis on development that is taking place throughout the Astros organization. We're excited about the staff that Houston has sent us in the first year of our affiliation with them."

Want to hear a Purpura story?

Here's a piece in Sports Illustrated about a July 2006 deadline that would have gone as follows:

Houston sends Roy Oswalt, Morgan Ensberg, and Adam Everett to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada.

Baltimore sends Oswalt to (a) the Mets for Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman, (b) Rangers for John Danks and Thomas Diamond.

So however you feel about Ed Wade, he's not Tim Purpura.

It's been a rough few days for the 2005 Astros

It's amazing to go back and take a look at the 2005 World Series sweepee Houston Astros roster, and how many of them have had a rough few days. Regard:

C - Brad Ausmus
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Craig Biggio
3B - Morgan Ensberg
SS - Adam Everett
LF - Chris Burke
CF - Willy Taveras
RF - Jason Lane

SP1 - Roy Oswalt
SP2 - Roger Clemens
SP3 - Andy Pettitte
SP4 - Brandon Backe
SP5 - Wandy Rodriguez
CL - Brad Lidge

Bagwell retired following 2005.
Biggio following 2007.
Ausmus left for LA this past off-season.
Ensberg just got released by the Rays.
Jason Lane just got sent down by the Blue Jays.
Chris Burke just got traded to the Mariners, and is on his third club since the DiamondB's trade.
Adam Everett got hurt last week aftersigning with the Tigers.

You look at who the Astros let go of, or got rid of, following the World Series run and it's hard to criticize them. Let's remember this as we move forward.