Friday, August 2, 2019

Comparing the fWAR on Luhnow's trades

It may come as some surprise to you, or it may not, that Jeff Luhnow is the 2nd longest-tenured GM in Astros history. Here are the tenures of Astros GMs:

Gerry Hunsicker: November 1995-November 2004 (9 seasons)
Spec Richardson: 1967-1975 (almost 9 seasons)
Jeff Luhnow: December 2011-present (currently 8 seasons)
Tal Smith: 1975-1980, 2007 (6 seasons)
Bill Wood: 1987-1993 (6 seasons)
Al Rosen: 1980-1985: (5 seasons)
Ed Wade: 2007-2011 (4 seasons)
Paul Richards: 1962-1965 (3 seasons)
Tim Purpura: 2004-2007 (3 seasons)
Dick Wagner: 1985-1987 (2 seasons)
Bob Watson: 1993-1995 (2 seasons)
John Mullen: 1975 (1 season)

Let's take a look at the trades Luhnow has made, evaluating them based on the fWAR he traded away, and the fWAR he received. While I *think* this will reflect favorably on Luhnow, I don't have any idea what the numbers actually look like. Let's get to it, chronologically. After a few minutes of working on this, the HTML is going to be complicated, given the spacing. So let's list the trades out and then use that to build a table that's a little more reader-friendly.

NOTE: The only fWAR Lost listed is what was earned with the team in which the outgoing player was traded to. So if the Astros traded someone to Kansas City, the fWAR listed will be while the player was with Kansas City, and not the fWAR they accumulated after KC sent them to New York, or something like that. Players released will have their fWAR listed through today (August 2, 2019).

ALSO: We're going to stop at the beginning of the 2019 season. It's too early to determine what Zack Greinke will do, or what the return will do for Arizona.

A: Trade with Boston. Marco Duarte for Marwin Gonzalez. December 11, 2011.

B: Trade with Kansas City. Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero for D'Andre Toney and Kevin Chapman. March 20, 2012.

C: Trade with Miami. Justin Ruggiano for Jobduan Morales. May 26, 2012.

D: Trade with Toronto. David Carpenter, J.A. Happ, and Brandon Lyon for Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, David Rollins, Asher Wojciechowski, and Kevin Comer. July 20, 2012.

E. Trade with Chicago White Sox. Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, Blair Walters, and Chris Devenski. July 21, 2012.

F. Trade with Pittsburgh. Wandy Rodriguez for Robbie Grossman, Colton Cain, and Rudy Owens. July 24, 2012.

G. Trade with Arizona. Chris Johnson for Marc Krauss and Bobby Borchering. July 29, 2012.

H. Trade with Colorado. Wilton Lopez and Jose Monzon for Alex Gillingham and Alex White. December 4, 2012.

I. Trade with Oakland. Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi. February 4, 2013.

J. Trade with Oakland. Jake Goebbert for Travis Blackley. April 4, 2013.

K. Trade with New York. Fernando Martinez for Charles Basford. June 18, 2013.

L. Trade with Detroit. Jose Veras for Danry Vasquez and David Paulino. July 29, 2013.

M. Trade with Baltimore. Bud Norris for Josh Hader and L.J. Hoes. July 31, 2013.

N. Trade with Colorado. Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles for Dexter Fowler. December 3, 2013.

O. Trade with San Diego. Patrick Schuster for Anthony Bass. December 11, 2013.

P. Trade with Miami. Austin Wates, Jarred Cosart, and Enrique Hernandez for Jake Marisnick, Francis Martes, and Colin Moran. July 31, 2014.

Q. Trade with Anaheim. Carlos Perez and Nick Tropeano for Hank Conger. November 5, 2014.

R. Trade with Atlanta. Andrew Thurman, Mike Foltynewicz, and Rio Ruiz for Evan Gattis and James Hoyt. January 14, 2015.

S. Trade with Chicago. Dexter Fowler for Dan Straily and Luis Valbuena. January 19, 2015.

T. Trade with Arlington. Carlos Corporan for Akeem Bostick. January 21, 2015.

U. Trade with Oakland. Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham for Scott Kazmir. July 23, 2015.

V. Trade with Milwaukee. Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana for Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers. July 30, 2015.

W. Trade with Milwaukee. Jonathan Villar for Cy Sneed. November 19, 2015.

X. Trade with Oakland. Jed Lowrie for Brendan McCurry. November 25, 2015.

Y. Trade with Philadelphia. Mark Appel, Vince Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Tom Eshelman, Harold Arauz for Ken Giles, Jonathan Arauz. December 12, 2015.

Z. Trade with San Diego. Dan Straily for Erik Kratz. March 28, 2016.

AA. Trade with Toronto. Scott Feldman for Lupe Chavez. August 1, 2016.

AB. Trade with Los Angeles. Josh Fields for Yordan Alvarez. August 1, 2016.

AC: Trade with New York. Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman for Brian McCann. November 17, 2016.

AD. Trade with Toronto. Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez for Francisco Liriano. July 31, 2017.

AE. Trade with Detroit. Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez, and Jake Rogers for Justin Verlander. August 31, 2017.

AF. Trade with Oakland. Ramon Laureano for Brandon Bailey. November 20, 2017.

AG. Trade with Pittsburgh. Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Jason Martin, and Michael Feliz for Gerrit Cole. January 13, 2018.

AH: Trade with Toronto. Ken Giles, Hector Perez, and David Paulino for Roberto Osuna. July 30, 2018.

AI: Trade with Toronto. Trent Thornton for Aledmys Diaz. November 17, 2018.

TradeDatefWAR LostfWAR EarnedNet fWAR
A. Boston12.11.11n/a7.8+7.8
B. Kansas City3.20.12-0.6-0.2+0.4
C. Miami5.26.123.9n/a-3.9
D. Toronto7.20.1210.60.9-9.7
E. Chicago7.
F. Pittsburgh7.
G. Toronto7.29.121.4-0.7-2.1
H. Colorado12.4.120.4n/a-0.4
I. Oakland7.
J. Oakland4.4.13n/a-0.9-0.9
K. New York6.18.13-0.4n/a+0.4
L. Detroit7.29.13-0.3n/a+0.3
M. Oakland7.31.134.0-0.7-4.7
N. Colorado12.
O. San Diego12.11.13n/a-1.0-1.0
P. Miami7.
Q. Oakland11.5.14-0.21.0+0.8
R. Atlanta1.
S. Oakland1.
T. Arlington1.21.150.0n/a0.0
U. Oakland7.
V. Milwaukee7.
W. Milwaukee11.
X. Oakland11.
Y. Philadelphia12.
Z. San Diego3.28.16n/a-0.8-0.8
AA. Toronto8.1.16n/an/a0.0
AB. Los Angeles8.
AC. New York11.17.16n/a2.6+2.6
AD. Toronto7.
AE. Detroit8.
AF. Oakland11.20.175.2n/a-5.2
AG. Pittsburgh1.13.185.910.5+4.6
AH. Toronto7.
AI. Toronto11.

*A few trades stand out:

-J.A. Happ to Toronto. He was actually a good pitcher, but would not necessarily have helped when the Astros were rebuilding.
-The second Jed Lowrie trade in November 2015. He was expendable thanks to Carlos Correa's emergence. The Astros just got him out of the way.
-Vince Velasquez has been decent for the Phillies.
-Ramon Laureano has been extremely good for Oakland, but circumstances.

So overall Luhnow & Co. have earned themselves 13.2 fWAR. That's pretty good. But if we look at the stages of the Astros' rebuild, we see a little bit of a different story.

Luhnow until 2014 Trade Deadline: 30.7 fWAR lost, 25.8 fWAR gained. -4.9 fWAR total. Mainly thanks to J.A. Happ.
2014 Trade Deadline - present: 49.1 fWAR, 67.2 fWAR gained. +18.1 fWAR total.

If I had more patience, we could include releases, free agent signings, etc. but I don't. I'm ready to end this.