Tuesday, June 4, 2019

The Astros and Solo Home Runs

Overall Good Dude MDeskaTTU asked a question on Twitter:
Stat Nerds: is there a way to track what percentage of the Astros' runs allowed have been by solo home run? I feel like it's above average.

So let's take a look at this:

The Astros have allowed 82 home runs (going into Tuesday, June 4's game against Seattle). 59 of them have been by solo home run. That's 72% of the Astros' home runs allowed coming with the bases empty. But that's not what the question asked. They have allowed 212 runs total in 2019, so 27.8% of their runs allowed have been via a solo home run. Let's run the numbers and see how this compares to the rest of MLB, organized by % of runs allowed. (Source: Baseball-Reference Play Index. All stats valid going into games of Tuesday, June 4.)

Houston: 212 runs allowed / 59 solo homers = 27.8%
New York (AL): 234 runs allowed / 49 solo homers = 20.9%
St. Louis: 264 runs allowed / 53 solo homers = 20.1%
Philadelphia: 274 runs allowed / 55 solo homers = 20.1%
Baltimore: 359 runs allowed / 71 solo homers = 20.1%
Miami: 263 runs allowed / 50 solo homers = 19.0%
Cleveland 250 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 18.8%
San Diego: 262 runs allowed / 49 solo homers = 18.7%
Tampa: 189 runs allowed / 35 solo homers = 18.5%
Chicago (AL): 295 runs allowed / 52 solo homers = 17.6%
Anaheim: 301 runs allowed / 52 solo homers = 17.3%
Detroit: 299 runs allowed / 51 solo homers = 17.1%
Cincinnati: 225 runs allowed / 38 solo homers = 16.9%
Seattle: 384 runs allowed / 65 solo homers = 16.9%
Minnesota: 238 runs allowed / 40 solo homers = 16.8%
Arizona: 241 runs allowed / 40 solo homers = 16.6%
Atlanta: 283 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 16.6%
Milwaukee: 286 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 16.4%
Arlington: 296 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 15.9%
New York (NL): 291 runs allowed / 46 solo homers = 15.8%
Toronto: 286 runs allowed / 45 solo homers = 15.7%
San Francisco: 300 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 15.7%
Los Angeles: 233 runs allowed / 36 solo homers = 15.5%
Colorado: 303 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 15.5%
Oakland: 266 runs allowed / 41 solo homers = 15.4%
Boston: 284 runs allowed / 42 solo homers = 14.8%
Chicago (NL): 249 runs allowed / 36 solo homers = 14.5%
Kansas City: 310 runs allowed / 39 solo homers = 12.6%
Washington: 298 runs allowed / 37 solo homers = 12.4%
Pittsburgh: 313 runs allowed / 36 solo homers = 11.5%

So, overall, there have been 8318 runs scored in MLB this season combined and 1399 solo home runs hit. If we take out the Astros from this total in order to get a Rest-of-MLB data set, there have been:

Houston: 212 runs allowed / 59 solo homers = 27.8%
Rest-of-MLB: 8106 runs allowed / 1340 solo homers = 16.5%

It's not even close.