Sunday, September 3, 2017

The Hunt for Best October: Houston vs Cleveland

The Astros, once proud owners of an 11-game lead on the rest of the AL, have seen their AL-lead dwindle to 3.0 mainly thanks to Cleveland having won 20 of their last 24 games. Let's take a look at what the schedule holds for getting the winner of the Wild Card game in a five-game series (as of writing: Twins/Yankees), instead of getting to face Chris Sale twice. I don't want to face Chris Sale twice in a 5-game series.

Houston

Overall Record: 83-53 (.610)
Games remaining: 26
Home/Away: 9 home, 17 away

Projected record based on winning percentage: 99-63
Projected record based on last 30-game winning percentage: 95-67

Opponents' collective winning percentage: .484 (396-421)

Opponents remaining:
Seattle: 6 (3 home, 3 away)
Anaheim: 6 (3 home, 3 away)
Oakland: 4 (all away)
Boston: 4 (all away)
Arlington: 3 (all "away")
White Sox: 3 (all away home)

Record vs. Remaining Opponents: 38-25 (.603)
Projected record based on record vs remaining opponents: 98-68

Notes: There are a lot of variables to take into account with the Astros' performance over the rest of the season: Getting Correa/McCullers/Harris back, adding Verlander, psychological impact of those additions, psychological impact of being able to carry a city on their shoulders following a disaster, to name just a few. My gut says they'll go 15-11 - I don't like that late Boston series, or Anaheim being 1.5 back of the Twins, or Seattle trying extremely hard to make the postseason for the first time since, what, 2001? If they go 15-11, the Astros will end up 98-64.

Cleveland

Overall Record: 80-56
Games Remaining: 26
Home/Away: 16 home / 10 away

Projected record based on winning percentage: 95-67
Projected record based on last 30-game winning percentage: 99-63

Opponents' collective winning percentage: .482 (459-494)

Opponents remaining:
White Sox: 7 (3 home, 4 away)
Kansas City: 4 (all home)
Minnesota: 3 (all home)
Baltimore: 3 (all home)
Detroit: 3 (all home)
Anaheim: 3 (all road)
Seattle: 3 (all road)

Record vs. Remaining Opponents: 43-25 (.632)
Projected record based on record vs remaining opponents: 96-66

Notes: The Indians are MLB's hottest team, going 22-8 in their last 30 games, so is it fair to think they'll carry on a .733 winning percentage for the last 56 games of the season? It's possible, because it would require them essentially going an overall 41-15. The Astros went 40-16 in one 56-game stretch this season, so who knows? The Indians will face teams trying to make the postseason like Baltimore, Kansas City, Minnesota - all at home - while having a six-game west coast road trip to Anaheim and Seattle before returning home for the final six games of the season. Where it works in their favor is all those games at home (though, like the Astros, they're better on the road than at home) and, you know, not the nation's worst natural disaster hitting Cleveland. But they do have seven games left against the White Sox, which will be much scarier in two years, but looks good now.

Boston:

I'm not including them because they're currently playing the Yankees, and I would rather just re-do the math later.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The three game series with CWS is at MMP