Sunday, June 26, 2016

Sunday Morning Hot Links

*The Rangers beat the Red Sox, the A's beat the Angels, and the Mariners beat the Cardinals, so the Astros only picked up a game against the Angels. Your division looks like this:

*West Shreveport: -
*Houston: -9
*Seattle: -10
*Oakland: -15.5
*Anaheim: -17

*The Astros have won seven in a row, nine of their last ten, and still only picked up one game on the Ramgers. For the Wild Card:

WC1: -2.5
WC2: -1.5

*Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 19% chance of winning the division and a 29.9% chance of making a Wild Card spot - a 20% playoff spot increase since May 1.

*The Astros put it to the Royals - yet again - winning 13-5. It's the first time the Astros have scored 13+ runs in back-to-back games since September 8-9, 2000 when the Astros put up a 13 and a 14 at Chicago.

*Since May 1 the Astros have gone 30-19, 3rd-best record in the AL. Only the 34-16 Ramgers and 33-18 Indians have a better record. Because of course.

*A.J. Reed walked twice, scored two runs, and had an RBI sac fly in his debut. Hinch is excited about Reed's progress vs lefties and the ability to move Marwin around the field. The Astros DFA'd Double-A catcher Alfredo Gonzalez to make room on the 40-Man for Reed.

*Altuve had four hits and would have had a cycle had his helmet not hit his foot, causing him to fall into 2nd. Correa:
He tripped and wasn't able to get it, so obviously we had to make fun of him. It was pretty funny the way the helmet hit his feet and then he just collapsed.

*During his 28-game on-base streak, Altuve has hit .411/.476/.589. In this Insider-only piece, Buster Olney breaks down Altuve's "historic" season.

*Doug Fister credits the military with his success.

*Corpus' David Paulino is serving a team-imposed suspension for a violation of team rules. Luhnow said it was nothing major, and wouldn't be for an extended period of time. Paulino hasn't pitched since last weekend and is not scheduled to pitch for Corpus today.

*Luhnow hinted that Bregman and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez could be on their way to Fresno after the Texas League All-Star Game this week.


Chas R said...

Boy, I like AJ Reed ! I hope he can stick and we can finally have a solid everyday first baseman.

Kevin said...

Wow! Even Jason Castro got in on the action last night... had a RBI too.

It's a miracle he remembered where 1st Base is...

The Batguy said...

You mean the Jason Castro that's been getting on base roughly 10 percent more often than the average major league batter?

Your dumbass is showing. Might want to cover it back up.

Kevin said...

Average blows. Average doesn't make the playoffs.

Why would you resort to bad language? Way to show how classy you are.

Kevin said...

And if you want stats I'm happy to throw them back at you. And I have several years of them...

The Batguy said...

Average may not make the playoffs, but above average can and often does.

And throw all the stats you want at me. Just make sure they only relate to this season, since what happened in the past really doesn't mean anything when talking about current performance.

And I never claimed to be classy.

Kevin said...

2nd most whiffs among catchers (and most everyday starters have played fever games). 18th in RBI's (bottom half). 21st in fielding percentage. Tied for 7th most errors. 26th in BA among catchers with 30 or more starts (qualifier - I think my math is right here). And who knows how many men lob? And a "Richard Justice All-Star/ HOF worthy" 1.1 WAR.

And at least you own your classy status. So as Bill Murray would say, at least you have that going for you, which is nice.

The Batguy said...

Ok, strikeouts. I don't care. Some really smart people who don't just rely on what their daddy told them about the game have figured out that on average a strikeout is within a rounding error of being no better or worse than any other out. Here's a link to help you understand. Strikeouts are frustrating to watch, yes, but they don't hurt any more than any other type of out. Which of course means, if all outs are the same, we should really only be concerned with how often a batter DOESN'T make an out. There's a handy stat that gets us really close to that...OBP. If you get on base, you probably didn't get out, right? Among the 20 catchers with at least 180 plate appearances, Castro is 4th in the league.

Rbi's...are more dependent on the situation a batter finds himself in than on the batter's skills as a hitter. Here's a couple good links and Again, there's a handy stat to help us here...RE24. It measures how many runs a batter contributes to scoring as compared to the average runs scored in similar situations (i.e. runner on 1st, one out, etc) across the league. Ranking the same 20 catcher we see that Castro is again 4th in the league. He's produced over 5 more runs than would be expected by the average hitter who has faced the same base and out situations.

Fielding percentage for catchers is essentially useless, as the denominator for the calculation is putouts, which for a catcher is almost entirely made up by pitcher strikeouts. It's not like he's out there trying to run down balls in the gap. Again, here's some light reading Where a catcher really makes a difference is in preventing steals, blocking balls in the dirt, pitch framing, and calling the game. Castro has been below average in steal prevention this year as well as passed balls. Pitch framing is an area that is still being studied but here's a link indicating Castro's the 2nd best in the league Calling the game is truly fuzzy. You could try to shoehorn catcher ERA, though that's obviously very dependent on the pitchers as well. But, if you want, he's 8th.

And batting average...has been definitely proven to have one of the lowest statistical correlation to runs scored, lower than OBP, SLG, and OPS (OPS being the highest correlation of the three). I mean, if you want to use it you can, but there are much better things to look at.

I couldn't quickly find LOB numbers, but I can tell you he's hitting .273/.392/.500 with men on base this season. Does that help?

And his 1.1 WAR is 10th in the league. Top third. 20 teams with a worse starting catcher.

Kevin said...

So basically you don't care that your catcher strikes out a lot, doesn'the drive in runs, doesn'the add any value at the plate, and can'take field.

Interesting formula for winning. AND the new statisticians justifying poor performance could probably snow the average fan into thinking a team of Mendoza quality players can beat the 1961 Yankees.

The Giants and Yankees have the right idea for their 2 position... catching matters on defense AND offense.

And yes, career performance matters, too. Anyone can get hot for a week or two. And maybe even have an anomaly for a season. But to say that this season's numbers don'the matter isn'the a fair statement.

This discussion is old and pointless online. No one's gone change anyone's mind.

So, enjoy watching him strikeout a lot more this season... cause he'said on a mission to make Surfer Brad Ausmus look like Ted Williams.

The Batguy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Batguy said...

You completely missed most of what I wrote, didn't you? Castro has driven in five more runs than the average batter given the base runners and out situations he's found himself in. How does that become "doesn't drive in the runs?" And if I just showed you that OBP, SLG, and OPS are the most highly correlated to run scoring, how does Castro having an above average OPS mean he doesn't add value at the plate? And how does being an elite pitch framer mean he doesn't add value on defense?

I spelled it all out for you. Just because you either a) don't understand it or b) refuse to accept it because it doesn't match what you already believe doesn't make it less true.

I had a feeling this was how this discussion would play out. I run this same circle with everyone who clings to batting average as the first and primary stat they look at. Every once in a while someone will come around, though, and I had high hopes for you this time. But, as you said, you're not "gone change" your mind, even when presented with clear evidence.

Good day, sir.

Steven T said...

Commenters arguing over stats...what is this, the Crawfish Boxes?! Also, does anonymous finally have a name?

The Batguy said...

Perhaps I was a bit harsh with Kevin, but to understand my frustration, let's take a walk through some (mostly anonymous) comments from this season.

April 25: "The catching situation is purely awful (and getting worse every day). Since then, Castro has hit .252/.387/.463 and RE24 (see definition above) says he's been worth 10.5 runs above the average hitter over that span.

April 25: "[Feliz] will most certainly return to the farm when the road trip ends, and we should hope he is not required on the trip." Since then, Feliz has a 2.48 ERA, .466 opponents OPS, 40 K in 29 IP, and RE24 7.2 runs above the average pitcher over that span.

May 6: "Giles should be optioned to AAA" 2.95 ERA 25 K in 18 1/3 IP. RE24 of 3.5

June 6: Watching Jason Castro, Carlos Gomez, and Luis Valbuena play baseball is similar to getting kicked in the balls with a steel toed boot everyday. They're getting worse every game!" We've already covered Castro. Gomez is hitting .304/.391/.464 since and his RE24 is 7.0. Valbuena is hitting .326/.426/.587 with a 4.5 RE24.

That's a lot of outstanding performances that the Astros would have thrown away if they listened to these people. April's in the rearview mirror, people. You're missing some enjoyable baseball by trying to cling to it.

Steven T said...

Batguy...harsh, yet hilarious! The "Castro is awful" shtick has gotten pretty old in my opinion.

Stroslifer said...

Batguy... Get a life, dude. Everyone here is a Stros fan.

This team has serious gaps that will be seriously exposed against playoff teams.

You can have your opinion, too. But don't be an ass, man. There are a lot of folks here that know a lot of baseball.

Tone down the dogma, buddy. Otherwise, folks are gonna start

Chas R said...

Wow, that's the most heated exchange I have seen on here. Usually ya'll are pretty tame.

bp1 said...

Everyone can be a Stros fan, I highly recommend it. It helps though to be an informed and knowledgeable Stros fan, I also highly recommend this.

bp1 said...

When the comments here and the Chron become one in the same it will drive just about anyone a bit nuts.