This is the fourth part of an ongoing series where I do my best to recap and grade each of Jeff Luhnow's major decisions since taking over the Astros in December 2011. (part 1, part 2, part 3)
December 11, 2014
Delino DeShields drafted by the Texas Rangers in the rule 5
draft.
Taken with the 8th overall pick in 2010,
DeShields used his blazing speed to steal 101 bases in his first full
professional season. As a 21-year-old, he hit just .236/.330/.360 at Double-A
while many reports surfaced of character issues and attitude problems. The
Astros left him off of their 40-man roster in favor of infielder Ronald
Torreyes who they would designate for assignment months later.
At just 22, Deshields became the Rangers everyday
centerfielder, hitting .261/.344/.374. He finished seventh in the Rookie of the
Year voting, but was worth just 1.1 WAR due to his negative defensive value. He
was optioned to Triple-A in 2016.
This is a move that Luhnow take a lot of heat for, and I
understand that, but I don’t think it’s as bad as everyone thinks. There was
simply nowhere for Deshields to play at the major league level with the Astros.
Maybe they could have gotten something in return if they had protected him and
traded him, but you have to remember he was coming off a really bad year at
Double-A. I’m sure Luhnow tested the waters and couldn’t find a trade partner.
You can’t keep everybody.
Grade: C
December 12, 2014
Signed Luke Gregerson as a free agent.
At 3yrs/$18.5M, Gregerson has been serviceable for the
Astros. He saved 31 games for the club in 2015 with a 3.10 ERA and retained the
closer’s role in 2016 even after the acquisition of Ken Giles (more on that
later).
Grade: B
December 12, 2014
Signed Pat Neshek as a free agent.
After an incredible All-Star season with the Cardinals, the
side-arming righty signed a 2yr/$12.5M contract with the Astros. He hasn’t come
close to matching his 1.87 ERA with St. Louis, but has been still given Houston
value.
Grade: C+
December 15, 2014
Signed Jed Lowrie as a free agent.
After finally proving he could handle a two seasons without
injury, Lowrie rejoined the Astros on a 3yr/$23M deal that was presumably
designed to give the Astros the option not to promote Carlos Correa before they
or he was ready. Or, that was the plan. Lowrie played in just 69 games during
yet another injury-riddled season.
He did help keep Correa in the minors until his Super 2 date
passed, though.
Grade: C
January 14, 2015
Traded Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman, and Mike Foltynewicz to the
Atlanta Braves. Received James Hoyt and Evan Gattis.
Folty had an arm to dream on, routinely touching triple
digits as a starter. The strikeouts never materialized in the way one would
expect such a lively arm to produce – just 7.8 K/9 in his minor league career.
He started 15 games for the Braves in 2015 winning four with a 5.71 ERA. He is
still being shuttled between Triple-A and the big leagues with Atlanta, but the
former first round pick is still just 24 years old.
Andrew Thurman was taken by the Astros in the second round
of the 2013 draft. The right-hander has yet to impress in the minors, with a
4.79 ERA across four seasons. He has yet to get above Double-A.
Rio Ruiz, seen by some as the third baseman of the future
when he was taken in the 4th round of the 2012 draft, fell behind
Colin Moran on the depth chart and was thus expendable. After .293/.387/.436
campaign as a 20-year-old in High-A, Ruiz fell off drastically with the Braves.
At Double-A in 2015, he hit just .229 with 5 home runs. He’s gotten off to a
better start at Triple-A in 2016 and is still just 22, but some of the shine
has come off of his prospect status.
After playing independent ball for a few years, the Braves
took a flyer on Hoyt and signed him as a minor-league free agent. After posting
a 3.49 ERA in Triple-A for the Astros in 2015, he nearly made the Opening Day
roster out of Spring Training in 2016. He is currently the closer at Triple-A
Fresno but will almost certainly see big league action in 2016.
El Oso Blanco comes with an even more improbable backstory.
Gattis was once committed to Texas A&M out of high school but battled a
number of demons and wound up, among other things, as a janitor. After pulling
himself together, the Braves signed him as a minor league free agent. He made
his debut at 26 and had a breakout season in 2014 with a 126 OPS+ while serving
as the Braves catcher. In 2015, he occupied the Astros DH position and hit
.246/.285/.463 with a team-leading 27 home runs and 88 runs batted in. He was
recently optioned to work on his catching skills again and will now serve as
the Astros backup catcher and designated hitter. He will not be a free agent
until 2019.
This trade is still too fresh to judge accurately, as a lot of it depends
on whether Ruiz and Folty pan out into legitimate major leaguers. If Gattis can
provide defensive value behind the plate and continue to hit at a bit above
league average, he will serve his purpose with the Astros.
Grade: B-
January 19, 2015
Trade Dexter Fowler to the Chicago Cubs. Received Dan
Straily and Luis Valbuena.
With center field occupied by Marisnick and just one year
left before he hit free agency, Fowler was an expendable asset. In 2015, he hit
.250/.346/.411 and a career-high 17 home runs for the Cubs. He went from being
the worst defensive center fielder in baseball to one of the worst, which gave
him a 2.2 WAR for the season.
Straily appeared in 4 games with the Astros in 2015 and was
designated for assignment before the 2016 season and eventually traded for Erik Kratz.
After watching Matt Dominguez hit .215 at third base in 2014
and Colin Moran still needing some seasoning, the Astros needed a third baseman
for the 2015 season. Valbuena was coming off of a season where he hit .249 with
33 doubles and still had two years of service time – just enough to stall
Moran. He gave the Astros probably more than what they thought they would get,
hitting a career-high 25 homeruns and accruing 2.2 WAR, which if you are keeping score at home is exactly the same as Fowler.
Filled a positional need and paid Valbuena $5 million less.
Grade: B+
January 20, 2015
Signed Colby Rasmus as a free agent.
After being granted free agency by the Blue Jays following a
down year, Rasmus signed a 1yr/$8M deal with the man who drafted him in the
first round back in 2005 with the Cardinals. The Astros got more than they
bargained for as Rasmus hit 25 home runs on his way to a 2.6 WAR season – not
to mention his playoff heroics.
Grade: A+
January 21, 2015
Traded Carlos Corporan to the Texas Rangers. Received Akeem
Bostick.
Corporan played parts of four seasons with the Astros as the
backup catcher. In 198 games he hit .224/.285/.349. He was worth exactly 1.5
WAR over those four seasons. With the Rangers in 2015 he hit .178 before losing
most of season to injuries. The 32-year-old is currently with the Rays Triple-A
affiliate.
Bostick was the Rangers 2nd round draft pick in
2013. The 6’ 6” right-hander had a 5.18 ERA at A-ball when he was traded. In
2015, he had a 1.50 ERA at the Astros A-ball affiliate before moving up to
High-A Lancaster. At 21 and still two years younger than the average opponent,
Bostick began the 2016 season back in Lancaster.
With Castro, Conger, and Gattis on the roster, the writing
was on the wall for Corporan. He probably would have been designated for
assignment, but somehow Luhnow got an interesting prospect. Even if Bostick never makes
it to the big leagues, it was way better than nothing.
Grade: B+
July 23, 2015
Traded Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham to the Oakland
Athletics. Received Scott Kazmir.
Thrust into the middle of a pennant race at least a year earlier than
expected, Luhnow sprung into “win-now” mode. Kazmir was in the last year of his
contract but had a 2.38 ERA in 18 games with the A’s. The Astros made runs at
other starting pitchers at the deadline but ended up making a deal for Kazmir –
who they were concerned may wear down as the season went on as he had done in
the past. In 13 games with the Astros, he was 2-6 with a 4.17 ERA.
Mengden was the Astros 4th round pick in the 2014
draft. After dominating the Midwest League to the tune of a 1.16 ERA in 10
games, he was promoted to High-A where he allowed 29 runs in 49.2 innings when
he was traded. Armed with a deadly slider and a killer mustache, Mengden has
opened the 2016 season on an absolute tear. Through 43 innings at Double- and
Triple-A, he has given up just three runs while striking out 43.
After being drafted in the 6th round of the 2013
draft, Nottingham struggled in his first two professional seasons before
breaking out in a big way in 2015 when he hit .316/.372/.505. The A’s traded
him to the Brewers after the 2015 season and he is hitting .225 through 31
games at Double-A.
I’d be willing to bet Luhnow thought Nottingham was playing
way above his true potential, but it is always hard to give up a catching
prospect that can hit (though whether he can stay at catcher remains to be
seen). Mengden, on the other hand, may really hurt.
Grade: C-
July 30, 2015
Traded Josh Hader, Brett Phillips, Adrian Houser, and
Domingo Santana to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and
cash.
Oh boy.
After being named the Astros minor league pitcher of the
year, the 21-year-old Hader had a 3.17 ERA against guys four years older than
him at Double-A when he was traded. He entered the season as the Brewers No. 4
prospect and has not disappointed – allowing just four runs in 40.2 innings
while striking out 54 at Double-A.
In 2014, the Astros named Phillips their minor league hitter
of the year after he hit .310/.375/.529 with 17 home runs across two levels of
competition as a 20-year-old. When he was traded, he was hitting .321 at
Double-A. The center fielder entered the 2016 season as a top 100 prospect.
Houser was taken in the 2nd round of the 2010
draft by the Astros but has yet to reach that potential in the minors. The
23-year-old has a 4.43 ERA through six seasons. He pitched in two innings with the Brewers last year but opened the 2016 season at Double-A.
Domingo Santana, a toolsy outfielder, made his major league
debut at 21 in 2014 after hitting .296/.384/.474 with 16 home runs at Triple-A.
He played in 14 games with the Astros in 2015, hitting .256 but striking out in
17 of his 42 plate appearances. But at Triple-A, Santana had a .320 average
with 16 home runs in just 75 games when he was traded. He made the Brewers
Opening Day roster in 2016 and has been tabbed by many as a breakout candidate
this year. He is still just 23.
Mike Fiers pitched better as an Astro than Scott Kazmir did,
posting a 3.32 ERA in 10 games that included the first no-hitter in Minute Maid
Park history. Team-controlled until 2020, Fiers was acquired to give the Astros
pitching depth for the next few years while prospects developed. He has been pretty much exactly the Astros hoped he would be when they acquired him. An innings eater at the back of the rotation.
Carlos Gomez has been….not the player that the Astros
thought they were getting.
After two straight All-Star seasons with above-average
offense and stellar center field defense – including a 2013 season that saw him
produce an astounding 8.5 WAR – Gomez hit just .255/.314/.409 in 2015 with the
Brewers and Astros. In 2016, he has been one of the five worst regular position
players in baseball. He will be a free agent this offseason.
If Gomez had even performed at his career average, this
would have been a decent trade. A hefty price, sure, but Gomez was one of the
best players in baseball for two years. As it stands, even if none of the
prospects the Astros traded make the majors this has been a loss – that’s how
bad Gomez has been. But if any of Hader, Santana, or Phillips reach their
potential, we could be talking about this trade for a long, long time.
Grade: F--
