The response to my post was mixed. Some agreed the low BABIP was a sign the Astros' luck was due to change. Others posited the low BABIP was simply due to the Astros hitters just being really bad, and I was foolish to expect that to be any different.
Well, we are now a month into the season. Lets see where the Astros offense, and specifically their BABIP, has gone.
The Astros as a team are currently hitting .219. That's still pretty awful, but considering they raised it from .189 just two weeks ago, it actually represents significant improvement. Their line of .245/.315/.391 over that time frame is roughly league average. The last two weeks, which includes 12 games, is even better, as they've put up a .258/.329/.423 line in that time. That's good for a 111 wRC+, 10th in the league. Their 56 runs score during the time frame is also 10th in the league. Several things have changed during that time frame; their K rate has ticked down, and their walk rate has inched up.
The biggest difference? I think you know. That team BABIP has risen from a low of .215 to a much more reasonable .265. Over the last 14 days, its a robust .315. Villar, Dominguez and Castro, who all had BABIPs under .200 at the time of the post, all have a BABIP over .300 over the last 14 days. Their season BABIPs are already near their career averages.
Will the Astros keep hitting like they have been over the last two weeks? Maybe, maybe not. If anything, that BABIP for that frame is a little high. Still, this is a much truer picture of the Astros offense than what we saw over the first two weeks of the season.
Unfortunately, the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, has taken a nose dive the last two weeks. But don't worry, their FIP from that stretch is over a full run lower than their ERA. That is sure to regress.