Via Hardball Talk we find a link to Bill Deane's website Baseball Past and Present, in which he has an 80% success rate at predicting the HOF vote. This year he is predicting a Hall of Fame class of...
It seems as though the Hardball Talk link brought down the server, so when it's up we'll have some updates for you.
UPDATE: Seems as though it's back up, so you can check it out for yourself. For our purposes, though, Deane projects a 61% vote for Biggio and 48% for Bagwell. If those are right, it would be a 7% retreat for Biggio and an 11% backslide for Bagwell. And, if you're curious, Deane was pretty accurate last year.