Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Do Spring Dingers Equal Swings in October?

The Astros are currently leading the Grapefruit League in home runs with 41. How much water do spring stats hold? As of March 31st zero. However, I wanted to see how the Grapefruit/Cactus League home run leaders have done the last 3 regular seasons.

In 2012 the Tigers led the Grapefruit League and the Angels led the Cactus league in home runs. The Tigers won the Central Division while the Angels placed 3rd and missed the playoffs.

Regular season leaders:
AL - NY Yankees - 1st in AL East
NL - Milwaukee Brewers - 3rd in AL Central
Detroit finished 10th in homers and the Angels finished 7th. (American League)
Astros - 10th in homers in the NL.

In 2011 the Baltimore Orioles led the Grapefruit League in dingers while the Royals lead the Cactus League. The Orioles finished last in the AL East and the Royals came in 4th in the AL Central.

Regular season leaders:
AL - NY Yankees - 1st in AL East
NL - Milwaukee Brewers - 1st in division.
Orioles were 4th in the AL in homers and the Royals were 10th.
Astros - 15th in homers in NL.

In 2010 the Rays and the A's were tops in the Grapefruit/Cactus League home run race. The Rays won the AL East that season and the A's came in 2nd in the AL West.

Regular season leaders:
AL - Tor Blue Jays - 4th in the AL East.
NL - Reds - 1st in NL Central.
Rays finished 6th in homers and the A's finished 13th.
Astros were last in the NL in 2010.

So what can Houston fans expect? Based on the last 3 seasons spring home runs did not translate to the regular season. After leading their leagues in spring none of the teams finished in the top 5 in their respective leagues in homers. However, out of the 6 teams who lead their league in regular season homers over the last 3 years only Toronto and Milwaukee didn't make the playoffs.

The Astros probably wont lead the AL in home runs this season but hopefully their spring training power output will mean more home runs in the regular season .

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