Saturday, June 23, 2012

Updated June 2012 Draft Math

So the Draft page has been updated, and here's what we find...

The total bonus pool for the first eleven picks is $11,177,700. With the Rio Ruiz signing - if Keith Law's $1.85m report is correct - brings the total bonuses to $10,235,200.

Aha! But don't forget the three College World Series players who have yet to sign:
2-61 Nolan Fontana
7-219 Preston Tucker
8-249 Tyler Heineman

The amount of bonuses remaining comes to $1,135,900. But, if you add up the "confirmed" bonuses already handed out to the recommended outstanding bonuses, the Astros have overshot their budget by $193,400. A couple of things, though:

1. Preston Tucker ($151,400) is a senior, and could follow Joe Bircher's lead and sign for far under slot.
2. Remember, the Astros can go over their bonus pool by 5% ($558,885), and while they'd have to pay a tax, they would not forfeit any future draft picks.
3. Seeing as how 26th Round pick C.J. Hinojosa is tweeting a photo countdown of how many days before he shows up in Austin to enroll at Texas, you can probably go ahead and write him off.
4. We're going to have to see what tricky math Jeff Luhnow can run to have enough to make a run at Hunter Virant.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Without incurring penalty, the Astros have a hair over $1.6 million available to sign Fontana, Tucker, Heineman and (Virant or Hinojosa). Luhnow seems to be on a roll and he stated after the draft he expected to be able to sign all of the first 11 picks. See no reason to doubt him at this point.

Anonymous said...

First eleven picks does not include Virant though. McCullers was a supplemental first round pick.

Anonymous said...

True. The first 11 does not include Virant or Hinojosa.

Houston has signed 4 college players among those top 11. 1 signed for slot and the other 3 were inked for below slot. It seems reasonable to assume among the remaining 3 college players in the top 11 selections to be signed there will be some money saved.

My guess is they will have ~$800-900K to tempt Virant and that's roughly equal to the slot money available in the area of where he was expected to be drafted. Doesn't mean he will sign, of course.

Reuben said...

What about Traver? I got the sense he would need the least $ out of the Virant/Hinojosa/Traver HS trio; perhaps if they don't end up with quite enough for Virant they can still get him.

Anonymous said...

Everything I've read is that Traver is considered a much harder sign than Virant.

Anonymous said...

Everything I've read is that Traver is considered a much harder sign than Virant.