Friday, June 22, 2012

Are the Astros really screwed?

24-51. That's the Astros' record in Interleague Play since the beginning of the 2008 season, heading into this weekend's series with the Indians. It's not good - of course it's not. It's a .320 Win%, which would be the approximate equivalent of a 52-110 season (only four games worse than the 2011 Astros). So can we guess that the Astros will be about that bad, beginning next season when they play in an inferior, abandoned, God-forsaken league?

One of the things I was curious about was the unfamiliarity factor. Are the Astros just unfamiliar with AL pitchers, and that's why they can't hit? (The unspoken side of this is all the American League teams who are 51-24 against the Astros since the beginning of 2008).

In 2012, the Astros have faced SPs 2+ times on thirteen occasions. Let's take a look, shall we?

Let's look at Average Game Score by all opposing pitchers first, eh? 53.6. Let's just slide right by the fact that opposing pitchers are averaging a smidge better than a quality start every outing against the Astros this season. In 44 out of 69 games this season, the opposing SP has posted a 50+ Game Score.

Average Game Score, the first time the Astros faced them in 2012: 52

And the second time they faced that Starting Pitcher: 49.7

Mike Leake had the biggest swing in Game Score differential with a +39 in the 2nd start (69) to the 1st start (30). Chad Billingsley had a +32, and Carlos Zambrano had a +31. In all, of the 13 pitchers, eight of them - for whatever reason - posted a lower Game Score in their 2nd time facing the Astros than they did the first time. The leaders in minus territory? Randy Wolf (-36), Juan Nicasio (-30), Jeremy Guthrie (-21).

American League SPs have an average Game Score of 60.25, by the way. And Colby Lewis is the only AL pitcher the Astros have seen more than once this year, and he posted a 75 and 76, respectively.

This is not a very in-depth look at whether the Astros will post a record similar to the .320 Win% they have over the past five seasons, but - for one thing - it's hard to lose 110 games - and this 2012 team (whom, it seems, will look familiar in 2013) has fared better the 2nd time around.

Now, feel free to pick this apart.

1 comment:

Andrew said...

At least our interleague record should be better next year...

Joking aside, I expect next year to be rough at times, but using our interleague schedule to predict our performance is sketchy at best because its not like we will be facing 1st place teams the entire time (4 of our 5 series this year have been against 1st place clubs). Yes we will be playing the Rangers a lot more but we will also get to face other struggling/rebuilding teams that should help to balance it out.