Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Jordan Lyles = Brad Radke?

Over at Minor League Ball John Sickels examined the Top 50 pitching prospects, and evaluated their seasons.

Our very own Jordan Lyles was #17, and Sickels had this to say:
Grade B+: 3.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB in 62 Triple-A innings. Went 2-8, 5.36 in 94 major league innings with 67/26 K/BB and 107 hits allowed. Remains on the Brad Radke career track.

Your first thought was probably similar to mine, in which you thought, "BRAD F&#@(ING RADKE!?" and got all indignant. But before we arbitrarily pass judgment, let's see if it's right:

Lyles' minor-league numbers.

Single-A: 144.2IP, 134H/52ER, 3.24 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 167K:38BB
Double-A: 127.0IP, 133H/44ER, 3.12 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 115K:35BB
Triple-A: 94.0IP, 112H/44ER, 4.21 ERA/1.49 WHIP, 64K:28BB
Houston: 94.0IP, 107H/56ER, 5.36 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 67K:26BB

Alright. How about Radke?

Single-A: 165.2IP, 149H/54ER, 2.93 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 127K:47BB
Double-A: 262.1IP, 248H/94ER, 3.22 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 199K:50BB
Minnesota: 2451.0IP, 2643H/1150ER, 4.22 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 1467K:445BB

Radke posted 9.7 hits/9, 1.6 BB/9, a 3.30 K:BB ratio, and an OPS+ over 100 in 10 of his 12 seasons (averaging 113 OPS+).

I think if Lyles turned into Brad Radke - a guy you could count on for 10+ seasons (Radke was 22 when he came up with the Twins in 1995) to turn in above-average numbers - I would somehow be okay with that.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Radke wasn't a bad player by any stretch. He was a career #3 starter forced to be an ace until the rise of Johan Santana. If Lyles could mirror Radke for his career, I'd be ecstatic since that's basically his ceiling. Unfortunately we have a rotation and system full of guys whose upside is as a 3rd starter, with the exception of Cosart and Norris. Sad.