Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Astros and the 2012 #1 pick

The Astros have been in sole possession of the worst record in baseball since June 9, and currently sit 8.5 games behind the Orioles for next year's #1 pick, 9.0 games behind the Royals, and 10.5 behind the Twins.

In order for the Astros to wrap up the #1 pick in 2012's draft, those are the teams they're going to have to pull ahead of (obviously). Over their last 30 games, the Astros are 12-18, a record matched by the Orioles. The Twins are 7-23 in that span, and the Royals are 11-19. Over their last 20 games, the Astros (9-11) have a better record than eight other teams.

To put this in perspective, if the Astros were to win out at a .450 pace (the 9-11 clip), then here's what the other teams would need to do (considering the Astros would have a 58-104 record:

Orioles: 3-25
Royals: 3-22
Twins: 2-24

So there you have it. Of course, if the Astros keep winning - and often - this could get skewed. But it would take an LOLMets tragedy in order for the Astros to give the #1 away to the Orioles.