Sunday, June 12, 2011

Brandon Lyon's last 18 batters faced

So with Brandon Lyon consistently nutting games since the end of April, it's worth taking a look at his last 18 batters faced. What the hell is happening? Let's try to find out. Remember, we're going from most-recent on back...

June 11 vs. Atlanta:
vs. Chipper Jones: 0 out, bases empty. 3-2 double up the middle
vs. Brian McCann: 0 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, 2-1 homer to deep right
vs. Dan Uggla: 0 out, runner on 2nd, six-pitch walk
vs. Jordan Schafer, 0 out, bases empty, 3-1 line drive to right.

June 10 vs. Atlanta:
vs. Alex Gonzalez: 2 out, bases empty, first-pitch groundout to short
vs. Freddy Freeman: 1 out, bases empty, five-pitch strikeout
vs. Chipper Jones: 1 out, bases empty, 1-0 homer to deep left
vs. Dan Uggla, 0 out, bases empty, 2-2 groundout to short

May 4 at Cincinnati:
vs. Jay Bruce, 0 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, first-pitch walk-off double to right
vs. Brandon Phillips, 0 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, 2-1 RBI single to right
vs. Joey Votto, 0 out, runners on 1st and 3rd, 1-1 RBI single to right
vs. Chris Heisey, 0 out, runner on 2nd, 2-2 single to right
vs. Drew Stubbs, 0 out, bases empty, four-pitch walk

April 30 vs. Milwaukee:
vs. Yuniesky Betancourt, 2 out, runner on 1st, 0-1 lineout to 3B
vs. Corey Hart, 1 out, runner on 1st, first-pitch groundout to 3B
vs. Casey McGehee, 1 out, bases empty, single to left
vs. Prince Fielder, 1 out, bases empty, 3-1 homer to deep right
vs. Ryan Braun, 0 out, bases empty, 1-1 flyball to right

So. What do we see?

*First of all, with a DL stint in between, Lyon has allowed 12 of the last 18 batters he has faced to reach base.
*He has one strikeout, in 18 batters.
*Eight batters have taken him to the right side of the field, four have gone to the left side, three have gone up the middle. (Two walks, one strikeout).
*Lyon is just getting rocked. He's not making anybody miss. According to Baseball-Reference, in his last 65 pitches, he has seven swings-and-misses, with six strikes looking. That's only 20% of his pitches that are non-contact strikes.
*Five of the ten hits he's allowed have been for extra-bases, with two doubles and three homers.
*Baseball-Reference also gives him a -1.2 WAR, or a 1.2 Wins Below Replacement, depending on how you want to look at it. There's no way that he should be pitching.

This is more than just a rough patch. Either he's completely ineffective, or that partial tear is completely wrecking his year. Either way, it's time to put him on the 60-Day DL, or give him the Bill Hall treatment.