Friday, April 2, 2010

Pence poised for breakout season?

I'm not sure how much more All-Star Hunter Pence could breakout but John Dewan's Stat of the Week shows that he could do exactly that.

This is our sixth annual list of possible breakout players based on Spring Training statistics. We researched the value of Spring Training stats a few years back and it was quite revealing. For the most part, we agree with the common perception that they don't have value. A bad spring training means nothing. An average spring training tells us nothing. Nevertheless, we did find that when a player has an exceptional spring, it does suggest a better than 60% chance they will take their game up a notch. It applies to teams as well.

We define "exceptional spring" as a positive difference between a hitter's spring training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of 200 points or more.

And Hunter Pence is on that list.


OremLK said...

Yeah, knowing how much raw power Pence has, I've been waiting for him to have a huge 40HR season. He's easily capable of it in terms of his tools, he just needs better pitch recognition and plate discipline (obviously). He needs to prove he can lay off breaking balls outside the zone and he'll start getting more fastballs he can drive.

Joe said...