Sunday, February 14, 2010

Lexington Legends: David Duncan

David Duncan
How did he get here?: Drafted, 5th Round (2008)
Stats: 6'9", 230 lbs, Throws: Left
Age as of April 1, 2010: 23

Man. David Duncan was all over the place, pitching for three of the Astros' minor-league affiliates: Tri-City, Lexington, and Lancaster. He started the season in Lancaster, went 0-9 in 10 starts with an 8.51 ERA, and was sent to figure out what the heck was going on - which he did, presumably, over 13 starts between Tri-City and Lexington.

2009 Overview - all three levels




IPERA/WHIPK:BBBAAK/9BB/9
125.25.73/1.55102:29.3277.32.1


Career (2008-09)




IPERA/WHIPK:BBHR/9K/9BB/9
1815.47/1.46147:381.07.31.9


What happened?

Duncan performed well once he got out of the Coors Light (see what I did there?), posting WHIPs of 0.98 and 1.34 at Tri-City and Lexington, respectively. Everything got better for Duncan upon leaving the Cali League: K/9, BB/9, H/9. So whether Duncan repeats at Lexington before jumping to Corpus, or they throw him and his self-confidence to the wolves remains to be seen.

What went right?

K:BB ratio. Even at his season's worst - in Lancaster - Duncan walked 3.1 batters per nine innings, and had almost a 2:1 K:BB ratio, while his career K:BB ratio sits at a nice 3.87:1. He has walked 38 batters in 181 career innings.

What went wrong?

Hard to say. Maybe having Duncan jump from Tri-City in 2008, where he posted a 4.88 ERA/1.25 WHIP in 55.1 career IP, straight to Lancaster. Regarless, it took the Astros 48.2 rough innings in Lancaster to realize he was in over his 6'9" head. Maybe a repeat at Lexington before jumping past the California League wouldn't be the worst thing.

7 comments:

OremLK said...

Look at his game log. First game on there:

4/13 (A+). 2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 2 HR, 1 SO, 0 BB.

Welcome to Lancaster, Mr. Duncan! I hope you enjoy your stay!

That was the story of his stay at A+. Impossibly high BABIP, impossibly high HR rate, impossibly low left-on-base percentage. His K/BB ratio did drop, too, but note that most of his walks came in a short period right after that initial warm welcome (his worst showing of the year).

I think he got timid in the strike zone for awhile because of what happened, and that was the main cause of his dropped K/BB. The rest? Clear Channel Station and crappy luck.

OremLK said...

Heh, I should stop listening to the radio so much. Should have said "Clear Channel Stadium".

OremLK said...

Though to be fair, at Lancaster, the hits DO keep on coming.

The Constable. said...

That's +2 for the Lancaster breakdown, and for the hilarity.

Patrick said...

There was a post a couple weeks ago that linked to a Jim Callis breakdown of David Duncan. Callis commented that Duncan's best pitch was the splitter and the Astros org would not allow him to use it at Lancaster in 2009. When he got demoted after 10 games they allowed him to use it again.

This would partially explain the large gap in the numbers between Lancaster and Tri-Cities/Lexington

Here's the post i'm referring to:

http://www.astroscounty.com/2010/01/interesting-scouting-report-on-david.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AstrosCounty+%28Astros+County%29

OremLK said...

Ah, now that you mention it Patrick, I do remember that. That would probably have something to do with the reduction in strikeout rate and the increase in home runs (since he got less groundballs), though I still think Lancaster and Lady Luck had a lot to do with the rest of it (LOB%, BABIP).

The Constable. said...

And +1 to Patrick for linking to a post I created, yet had forgotten about. Excellent observation.