Monday, February 22, 2010

John Sickels on Felipe Paulino

John Sickels invaluable site Minor League Ball has an update in his "Not A Rookie" series on Felipe Paulino. I won't pull too much from it, but regard the last paragraph:

On the other hand, his FIP was much better than his ERA at 5.11; 5.11 is hardly good, but it indicates that he didn't pitch as badly as the raw numbers indicate on the surface. His tERA was even better at 4.63. Fangraphs indicates consistent 95-97 MPH velocity on his fastball, so the heat he showed in the minors is still there despite the injury issue. Indeed, Paulino's contact% was the second-best among all starting pitchers in baseball last year at 71.8% (see this Fangraphs piece). He pitched more effectively in the second half last year (5.27 ERA with a 42/17 K/BB in 43 innings after the All-Star Break.

Remember that Paulino missed all of '08 with injuries, and should probably have spent most of last year in Triple-A working the rust off. He still has some work to do with his command, and he needs to watch his weight. but there are hints in the numbers that Paulino could take a step forward in 2010. Keep a close eye on him.

We hardcore fans know that Paulino's numbers were inflated due to complete mismanagement by the coaching staff, so overall, this will hopefully be the season Paulino busts out.