Monday, August 3, 2009

Matchup for G106 - Giants @ Astros

The Giants come into this series at 58-47, seven games behind the Mannies for first in the NL West, but with a record good enough to put them in first place in the Central. They're coming off a seven-game homestand in which they swept the Pirates and took three of four from the Phillies (holding them to 10 runs in four games). They were 3-7 on a 10-game roadtrip before that Pirates series for a 9-8 record since the ASB.

Since sweeping the Cardinals, the Astros have lost three straight series (vs Mets, @ Cubs, @ Cardinals) and are 3-7 in that span, losing 3.5 games on the division leaders.

Mike Hampton
Ah jeez. It's been since July 6 - four starts - that Hampton has thrown a quality start. That's a 1-3 record, with a 10.42 ERA, and batters hitting .405/.467/.620 against him.

Last three starts:

7/18 @LAD5.27/44:29/992/56
7/24 vNYM5.28/47:48/8101/64
7/29 @CHC48/91:46/1379/46

Let's see what happens if Hampton can't get out of the 3rd, or gives up another nine runs. But check out his numbers vs San Francisco. Of course, this is tilted heavily from his time in Colorado and his Astrodome days in the 1990s:

vs. SF (career): 15-4, 3.59 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 158IP, 143H/63ER, 86K:62BB
Home (2009): 3-3, 5.04 ERA/1.58 WHIP, 50IP, 59H/28ER, 33K:20BB

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: .304/.384/.468, 37K:37BB
vs Lefties: .250/.282/.438, 28K:5BB

When swinging at the first pitch (54): .348/.333/.717, 9XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (202): .279/.310/.437, 44K:8BB
After First-Pitch Balls (176): .286/.423/.407, 21K:34BB

RISP: 31x95, .326/.404/.537, 17K:15BB
Runners on: 49x157, .312/.398/.522, 30K:25BB
2OwRISP: 18x46, .391/.481/.674, 6K:8BB

So we see the key for Hampton here is to not throw balls. Ever.

Matt Cain

Did you know that Matt Cain in 2007/2008 put together ERAs of 3.64 and 3.76 and only had a 15-30 record? Well all that is being turned around this season. Cain (who might be the most underrated pitcher in the National League) and his 12-2 record (league-leading .857 winning percentage) and 2.12 ERA, gets the ball for the Giants.

Last three starts:

7/19 @PIT75/18:210/7107/72
7/24 @COL73/15:46/11117/67
7/29 vPIT93/04:210/15111/75

It's been since June 26 that Cain last lost (and May 26 before that), and that was also the last time Cain allowed more than one earned run. Uh-oh.

vs. HOU (career): 1-1, 3.00 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 15IP, 12H/5ER, 14K:6BB

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: .239/.331/.380, 55K:32BB
vs Lefties: .207/.267/.310, 57K:22BB

When swinging at the first pitch (56): .346/.340/.519, 7XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (287): .193/.232/.283, 83K:13BB
After First-Pitch Balls (219): .230/.375/.385, 29K:41BB

RISP: 14x97, .144/.256/.216, 29K:16BB
Runners on: 30x194, .155/.247/.232, 48K:25BB
2OwRISP: 4x48, .083/.267/.125, 17K:12BB

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