Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Matchup for G38 - Brewers at Astros

The Astros salvaged a split in a rain-shortened series, and if I was a betting man (which I'm not, and even if I did, it would not be on baseball. I want to go into the Hall of Fame.) and you had asked me which of the games the Astros would win: Oswalt v Wells or Moehler v Harden...I would have lost my money.

Milwaukee comes in to Houston winning eight of their last ten, and coming off a sweep of the Cardinals, taking a 2-game lead in the NLC (six games over the Astros). Last time around, the Brewers took two of three from the Astros...

Mike Hampton

At least the guy has stayed healthy, but the pitching? It's been hit or miss (and mostly hit, and mostly not in the good way). Hampton's last start, last Wednesday vs Colorado, he went six innings for the first time since last facing the Brewers on April 25 and he has not posted a quality start since April 15. Since then Hampton's ERA has risen from 2.45 to 5.31 and the Astros are 2-5 when Hampton starts.

Last three starts:

5/1 @ATL4.15/50:210/972/42
5/6 vCHC5.17/34:48/11107/66
5/13 @COL67/53:26/1595/52

We've talked about Hampton staying healthy as the key to the Astros season, and he certainly has. He's thrown 90+ pitches in six of seven starts, and 100+ pitches four times this season.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 31x109, .284/.371/.422, 16K:14BB
vs Lefties: 12x41, .293/.333/.463, 13K:3BB

When swinging at the first pitch (18): .267/.250/.533, 2XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (83): .321/.354/.449, 15K:3BB
After First-Pitch Balls (72): .246/.394/.386, 14K:14BB

RISP: 11x34, .324/.415/.647, 5K:6BB
Runners on: 18x65, .294/.341/.365, 10K:6BB
2OwRISP: 7x17, .412/.500/.941, 2K:3BB

2 out: .320/.404/.560, 10K:7BB

Unsettling stat of the splits: The first batter of the game is 5x7 and leading off the inning, batters are 16x38 against Hampton.

What happened last time out for Hampton v Brewers?
Weeks: Single to left, grounded out to third, grounded out to second
Hart: GIDP, walked, struck out looking
Braun: Single to right, infield single, single to center
Fielder: Struck out swinging, homer to left, struck out swinging
Cameron: Flied out to center, struck out looking, walked
Hardy: Walked, flied out to left, grounded into fielder's choice
Hall: GIDP, singled to right, 3-run homer to left
Kendall: Singled to right, flied out to right, grounded out to first
Suppan: Sac bunt, line out to first

Hart was 3x3 off Hampton while Hall provided a 3-run homer for the Brewers.

Dave Bush

Bush is just 2-0 in eight starts for the Brewers with a 3.83 ERA, though they are 5-3 when he does start (and those are five straight wins for Milwaukee when Bush starts). Bush did not pitch when the Brewers and Astros played in April. Bush has thrown seven innings in four of his last five starts, and five of his starts have resulted in one-run games.

Last three starts:

5/3 v ARI75/37:07/1396/67
5/8 v CHC74/24:08/1281/51
5/14 vFLA76/27:12/1797/60

Bush has been very economical - throwing fewer than 100 pitches in each of his last three outings of 7IP, and has been getting fly balls and non-contact strikes: 79 NCS in May (57 looking / 22 swinging).

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 17x65, .262/.319/.477, 11K:3BB
vs Lefties: 22x106, .208/.265/.406, 25K:7BB

When swinging at the first pitch (23): .333/.348/.667, 3XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (92): .181/.233/.289, 24K:4BB
After First-Pitch Balls (77): .254/.329/.537, 12K:6BB

RISP: 7x34, .206/.231/.324, 7K:2BB
Runners on: 13x61, .213/.239/.279, 12K:2BB
2OwRISP: 2x14 .143/.250/.214, 3K:2BB

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