Wednesday, June 5, 2013

30 hours out, Appel at the top of the draft board

Brian McTaggart tweeted out that the Astros are likely going to take a college player with the 1.1 pick, with Mark Appel at the top of their draft board - at least for now.

In the tweet, McTaggart includes a link to Jonathan Mayo's Day Before column, which shows little separation between Appel and Jonathan Gray.

Mayo, on Appel:
He had a better season as a senior and it seems likely he will hear his name called in one of the first few picks. The Astros didn't take him last year, though, leading many to believe they won't select him this time around, either.

I don't know how much I believe that. Given the hard slotting and bonus pool in play for the first time last year, the Astros knew that Appel/Boras wouldn't take the $6m they offered - that's why they drafted Carlos Correa. So why would Appel take $3.8m seven picks later? Maybe the Astros didn't know that Appel would be available at 1.1 in 2013, but they probably knew Appel/Boras wouldn't panic and take a lot less money from another team. 


CLOrnelas said...

Question: What leverage does Appel have if the Astros try to make him take less than slot? Not alot of options for a senior with no more eligibility who has already post-poned his professional debut one year. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Why would the Astros let McTaggart know who is on the top of their board? Nothing we hear from now until the pick is announced can be taken at face value. The fog of draft time.

Also, Appel might have been passed on last year because there were others far more deserving. The notion that it was all about money seems like Boras' spin to me.

Astros County said...

Let's keep in mind that the slot value for 1.1 in 2012 was $7.2m. If the Astros did indeed offer $6m (, then that's still $1.2m below the slot value. I can understand passing on that - $6m is $200K below the 1-2 slot value.

But you're right - there's no way to know who the Astros are going to take. Appel is at the top of 30 draft boards right now, question is who they actually choose.

John Martin said...

Moran or Bryant, please. The Astros are much more likely to get sustained production over a longer period of time from a position player than they are a pitcher and I'm not convinced Appel is a clear 1-1. I still believe his slide last year was as much about him as it was the money. Sure he improved this year, but he was repeating the equivalent of low-A.