Monday, December 19, 2011

Looking back at the 2011 ZIPS projections

So earlier today, Dan Szymborski posted the 2012 Astros ZIPS projections which, as clack says at TCB:

ZIPS is one of the more respected systems for projecting player performance. I won't say it's the best system, because that is hard to determine. But the godawful Astros' projections of the last couple of years have identified some problem areas for the roster that would materialize during the year.

Let's see what ZIPS projected for 2011 vs. what really happened (selected players):














NameSetBA/OBP/SLGOPS+K:BB
PenceZIPS.277/.326/.463111113:44
Pence2011.314/.370/.502138124:56
LeeZIPS.275/.319/.45910850:35
Lee2011.275/.342/.44611760:59
WallaceZIPS.261/.324/.41498129:34
Wallace2011.259/.334/.3699691:36
BarmesZIPS.245/.299/.3858487:28
Barmes2011.244/.312/.3869388:38
MartinezZIPS.272/.323/.39593115:37
Martinez2011.274/.319/.42310448:13
SanchezZIPS.258/.306/.3317280:31
Sanchez2011.240/.305/.2856544:27


I'm not committed enough to look at the pitchers, but we can break this down: ZIPS-projected ERA+ and actual ERA+:

Wandy: (ZIPS) 109, (Actual) 109
Myers: 101, 85
Happ: 94, 71
Norris: 91, 100
Lyles: 84, 71

So take from this what you will. No projection system is perfect, as it can't figure in playing time. But ZIPS is historically pretty good.

4 comments:

Juvenile Court Clerk said...

If I remember correctly, a lot of fans looked at Wallace's 2011 projections and said, they'd be good with that rookie season. One year later, after putting up very similar numbers to his projections, and we're already wondering when Singleton will be ready.

Reuben said...

For me, it wasn't so much the quality of Wallace's overall numbers, but the steep cliff he stumbled off of the last 3-4 months of the season after a great April/May. That and the rumor that he was stubborn about listening to coaches (including Bagwell) makes him a big question mark at this point.

Juvenile Court Clerk said...

He's definitely still a question mark, but which is a more accurate reflection of his true talent: April-May or June-July? Would we look at him the same way if he'd started slowly and then gotten hot?

Andrew said...

I would say June-July because the League used April-May learning how to pitch to him. Once the book was out on him it looks like he was not able to (or didn't want to) make adjustments.