Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Chris Johnson's approach: To not have an approach

Steve Campbell's article on Chris Johnson is an interesting one, with the traditional "veteran-tricks-rookie" story, courtesy of Roy Oswalt.

But on to how Chris Johnson is going to adjust to pitching in 2011:
“Everybody’s always asking me, ‘What adjustments are you going to make this year, because guys are going to adjust to you?’ I really don’t know the adjustment yet. I don’t know what they’re going to do. I’m going to stick with what I was doing until it doesn’t work. Then I’m going to have to adjust.”

Ed Wade:
“CJ last year got challenged late in the season and made the adjustments. He made them in a very significant way. I wouldn’t be surprised at the end of the season to see CJ hit 30-plus home runs.”

30 HRs? Johnson hit homers at a rate of one every 32.9 plate appearances. So to hit 30 homers - based on last year's limited sample - he would need 987 plate appearances. Of course, this doesn't take into account any growth on his part over the course of the season. That number came down slightly in August-September, with a homer coming every 32.3 PAs (1HR/21.4PAs in September alone). What say you? Does Johnson have 30+ HR power?

1 comment:

OremLK said...

CJ has 30+ homer raw power, but not 30+ homer pitch recognition. Some of his shots last year were pretty ridiculous, as in "over the tracks" power, so he clearly has the strength to hit a lot of balls out of the park. Problem is that he really struggles to recognize pitches.