Here's who we have on the hook for money in 2011:
Carlos Lee: $19m
Roy Oswalt: $9m
Brett Myers: $8m (mutual option, or $2m buyout)
Brandon Lyon: $5.25m
Lance Berkman: $2m (we'll just go ahead and assume they're buying him out, if they don't trade him first)
1st Year of Arbitration:
2nd Year of Arbitration:
3rd Year of Arbitration:
4th Year of Arbitration:
So before we get into arbitration, the Astros are on the hook for $43.25m. That's assuming Myers stays next year and the Astros buy out Berkman.
Now, the arbitration eligible players are making a combined $17.255m this year. Let's say the increase is 50% across the board (which is an incredibly roundabout number), the Astros would be on the hook for a total payroll of $69.1m. That doesn't include Happ, Wright, Fulchino, Arias, Norris, Castro, Johnson, Lopez, Manzella, Sanchez, Bogusevic, Wallace, or Bourgeois - all of whom should come in under $500,000 for the year.