Thursday, October 22, 2009

Bill James' 2010 projections

Captip to Street for the link to Bill James 2010 projections (from JC Bradbury's unbelievable Sabernomics site, published with permission).

We'll delve into this in depth later, but let's just pull the Astros' 2010 players:


Lance Berkman
'10 Proj: 153G, 157x554 (.283/.406/.518), 31HR, 104 RBI, 96R, 118K:109BB
'09 Stat: 136G, 126x360 (.274/.399/.509), 25HR, 80 RBI, 73R, 98K:97BB

Geoff Blum
'10 Proj: 113G, 72x306 (.235/.297/.359), 7HR, 36RBI, 30R, 52K:24BB
'09 Stat: 120G, 94x381 (.247/.314/.367), 10HR, 49RBI, 34R, 61K:33BB

Michael Bourn
'10 Proj: 150G, 156x575 (.271/.341/.360), 5HR, 37RBI, 91R, 121K:60BB
'09 Stat: 157G, 173x606 (.285/.354/.384), 3HR, 35RBI, 97R, 140K:63BB

Jason Castro
'10 Proj: 97G, 95x359 (.265/.325/.343), 3HR, 36RBI, 46R, 54K:32BB

Chris Coste
'10 Proj: 74G, 48x191 (.251/.309/.366), 4HR, 23RBI, 18R, 36K:13BB
'09 Stat: 88G, 46x205 (.224/.301/.317), 2HR, 18RBI, 15R, 55K:22BB

Darin Erstad
'10 Proj: 73G, 29x119 (.244/.297/.319), 1HR, 12RBI, 15R, 24K:8BB
'09 Stat: 107G, 26x150 (.194/.268/.328), 2HR, 11RBI, 13R, 13K:14BB

Chris Johnson
'10 Proj: 116G, 92x346 (.266/.300/.425), 11HR, 39RBI, 38R, 78K:17BB

Jeff Keppinger
'10 Proj: 115G, 107x367 (.292/.348/.395), 5HR, 35RBI, 44R, 26K:30BB
'09 Stat: 107G, 78x305 (.256/.320/.387), 7HR, 29RBI, 35R, 33K:27BB

Carlos Lee
'10 Proj: 152G, 172x587 (.293/.351/.503), 29HR, 107RBI, 79R, 61K:49BB
'09 Stat: 160G, 183x610 (.300/.343/.489), 26HR, 102RBI, 65R, 51K:41BB

Kaz Matsui
'10 Proj: 125G, 117x445 (.263/.317/.380), 8HR, 40RBI, 60R, 82K:33BB
'09 Stat: 132G, 119x476 (.250/.302/.357), 9HR, 46RBI, 56R, 85K:34BB

Jason Michaels
'10 Proj: 87G, 38x155 (.245/.328/.381), 4HR, 20RBI, 21R, 37K:17BB
'09 Stat: 102G, 32x132 (.237/.322/.430), 4HR, 16RBI, 17R, 38K:16BB

Hunter Pence
'10 Proj: 155G, 175x601 (.291/.351/.509), 28HR, 89RBI, 85R, 107K:53BB
'09 Stat: 159G, 165x585 (.282/.346/.472), 25HR, 72RBI, 76R, 109K:58BB

Humberto Quintero
'10 Proj: 71G, 43x173 (.249/.286/.358), 3HR, 18RBI, 15R, 30K:7BB
'09 Stat: 60G, 37x157 (.236/.286/.376), 4HR, 14RBI, 11R, 41K:7BB

Miguel Tejada
'10 Proj: 157G, 186x622 (.299/.342/.449), 18HR, 91RBI, 84R, 62K:32BB
'09 Stat: 158G, 199x635 (.313/.340/.455), 14HR, 86RBI, 83R, 48K:19BB

Of course, it's interesting to see Tejada's projections. It's hard to imagine pretty impossible to imagine Tommy Manzella coming close to those numbers.

Some other notes from this:
-Berkman is no longer a .300 hitter.
-Hunter Pence is emerging as maybe the Astros' best #3 hitter.
-Carlos Lee will do what Carlos Lee does
-Jason Castro is projected to be a major upgrade at catcher.

What else do you take?

Pitching projections

Starting Pitching

Quick note. I did not post Russ Ortiz or Mike Hampton's 2010 projections. Why? I think that's pretty obvious.

Roy Oswalt
'10 Proj: 33 starts, 205IP, 159K:48BB, 3.60 ERA/1.28 WHIP
'09 Stat: 30 starts, 181.1IP, 138K:42BB, 4.12 ERA/1.24 WHIP

Wandy Rodriguez
'10 Proj: 33 starts, 212IP, 179K:75BB, 4.12 ERA/1.40 WHIP
'09 Stat: 33 starts, 205.2IP, 193K:63BB, 3.02 ERA/1.24 WHIP

Bud Norris
'10 Proj: 19 starts, 107IP, 104K:50BB, 5.05 ERA/1.66 WHIP
'09 Stat: 10 starts, 55.2IP, 54K:25BB, 4.53 ERA/1.51 WHIP

Brian Moehler
'10 Proj: 30 starts, 163IP, 89K:47BB, 5.08 ERA/1.52 WHIP
'09 Stat: 29 starts, 154.2IP, 91K:51BB, 5.47 ERA/1.54 WHIP

Felipe Paulino
'10 Proj: 24G (24 starts), 130IP, 118K:62BB, 5.19 ERA/1.62 WHIP
'09 Stat: 23G (17 starts), 97.2IP, 93K:37BB, 6.27 ERA/1.67 WHIP

-Wandy is due for a regression back to his pre-2009 numbers.
-After Wandy, Bill James' predictions are iffy, to be complimentary.

Relief Pitching

Alberto Arias
'10 Proj: 33G, 33IP, 24K:14BB, 4.64 ERA/1.61 WHIP (dividing baserunners/9 innings by 9)
'09 Stat: 42G, 45.2IP, 39K:19BB, 3.35 ERA/1.49 WHIP

Yorman Bazardo
'10 Proj: 19G (3 starts), 36IP, 21K:14BB, 5.75 ERA/1.72 WHIP
'09 Stat: 10G (6 starts), 32IP, 17K:22BB, 7.88 ERA/1.84 WHIP

Tim Byrdak
'10 Proj: 85G, 68IP, 67K:37BB, 4.24 ERA/1.45 WHIP
'09 Stat: 76G, 61.1IP, 58K:36BB, 3.23 ERA/1.22 WHIP

Jeff Fulchino
'10 Proj: 73G, 93IP, 71K:41BB, 4.94 ERA/1.60 WHIP
'09 Stat: 61G, 82IP, 71K:27BB, 3.40 ERA/1.18 WHIP

Sam Gervacio
'10 Proj: 56G, 42IP, 49K:18BB, 3.64 ERA/1.33 WHIP
'09 Stat: 29G, 21IP, 25K:8BB, 2.14 ERA/1.14 WHIP

LaTroy Hawkins
'10 Proj: 62G, 63IP, 45K:17BB, 3.29 ERA/1.26 WHIP (0 saves)
'09 Stat: 65G, 63.1IP, 45K:16BB, 2.13 ERA/1.20 WHIP (11 saves)

Chris Sampson
'10 Proj: 32G, 35IP, 18K:7BB, 3.86 ERA/1.31 WHIP
'09 Stat: 49G, 55.1IP, 33K:21BB, 5.04 ERA/1.57 WHIP

Jose Valverde
'10 Proj: 60G, 67IP, 78K:27BB, 3.22 ERA/1.23 WHIP (38 saves)
'09 Stat: 52G, 54IP, 56K:21BB, 2.33 ERA/1.13 WHIP (25 saves)

Wesley Wright
'10 Proj: 53G, 52IP, 56K:33BB, 4.85 ERA/1.61 WHIP
'09 Stat: 49G, 44.2IP, 47K:25BB, 5.44 ERA/1.75 WHIP

What do you take from this?


JLC said...

Looks pretty bearish on both Bourn and Wandy -- not good. If those guys regress, we're in even worse trouble than we though.

tpack said...

Rough projections on Norris and Paulino as well. Although in reality we're not a contender next year anyway without some major changes that shouldn't/won't be made, so I guess I'm not that worried about it. Wonder if Berkman can still hit 30 out.

The Constable. said...

To James' credit, there's an Updated Projections sheet that comes out around March. I'm not sure what changes in an off-season, but there it is.

There's not one player you can look at from these projections and think, "Heck yeah. Breakout season!" That's a little troubling. I think the WHIPs are a little on the high side for the relievers, but he's Bill James, and I'm a blogger. So what do I know?

OremLK said...

The hitting projections seem pretty obvious and reasonable, even (I hate to say it) Bourn, but I have a hard time agreeing with most of the pitching projections.

Just as a couple of examples... how do you get to 4.12 ERA for Wandy after a consistent pattern of improvement leading to a 3.62 FIP in 2008 and a 3.54 FIP in 2009?

And take Bud Norris--3.67 FIP at AAA, 4.22 MLE FIP, and 4.77 actual big league FIP in a 55.2IP sample size. How does that lead to a 5.05 ERA, a BB/9 ratio higher than it has ever been in his entire career, and consequently a WHIP higher than ever before in his career? And why only a half season of starts? Barring injury or management stupidity I'd expect 30+ starts, an ERA in the 4's, and a walk rate that improves over 2009, not declines.

I mean, I could go on down the list but I just don't see the same conclusions in the data.

Ryan Sides said...

Just from what little I know about stat projections, these are made in large part based off of historical data. For instance, no one is saying Norris will get hurt or Wandy will not post similar numbers to last year. Rather, what that is saying is that players who have had similar career paths (how long they stayed in each minor league level, age, power/speed, etc etc etc) progress in that fashion. It's complicated, and extremely inexact, but holds fairly true for *most* players. What it doesn't hold for is when players make a change in something that stats cannot measure (i.e. a pitcher learning a new pitch, a hitter changing his approach, etc).